About the corona virus

DarkKnight

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So Corona Virus is a pretty big news headlight right now. Are you guys taking any measures? Or simply do not care? People over the internet treat the new disease in absolute terms like "living or dying" but I am more wary because of permanent damage which can be caused to the lungs or nervous system according to people on the net. Also the drastic measures which the Chinese government has taken doesn't promise any good things about the nature of the disease.
 

trashKENNUT

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China doesn't report properly. And Chinese citizens are angry at them.

If your country's hospital is good, like mine, you will not die, at least only 1% likely. It's like a common flu. Just that more amplified and more rest and isolation is necessary.

and if you have previous illness and lung cancer, you will mutate and hunt for Chris Redfield.

CHRISSSSSSS!!!!

:) I'm joking at the last 2 sentence.
 

DarkKnight

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You played resident evil 1? It's still my favourite entry.

The thing is, it's not just about you. You can also infect loved ones who are not as robust.
 

trashKENNUT

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You played resident evil 1? It's still my favourite entry.

The thing is, it's not just about you. You can also infect loved ones who are not as robust.


I played Re2, Re3, Re4, Re5.

Re6 was kinda halfway. And Re3 Remake is non negotiable.

Yeap. Its fucking contagious. Scary. I was trolling facebook post with resident evil jokes.

C virus and Chriiiiiisssssss. :)
 

Mike Silvertree

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I have been following this closely. The older you are, the higher the chances you will die. Most people get typical influenza. A small number after having the flu for a week, suddenly develop viral pneumonia and die within the next day or two.This mostly happens to old people who are not in the best of health, those who smoke, and those who live in an area with very bad air pollution.


In Italy, which has as good of a health care system as anyone, 99% of the deaths have been people above 60. No one has published the percentages of people who get sick and then die in the various age ranges. They don't know that, because they only have been testing sick people who show up at a medical facility. The number of people with it who either do not get sick or just have a typical cold is unknown.

I am already acting as if there is a raging epidemic when I go out. I only go out to shop for food and supplies. Early on I bought 6 boxes of the little alcohol wipes in foil packs they use to clean your skin before giving you a shot, and have a stack of them in my car and more in my coat pocket. In a store, I use one to wipe down the handle on the shopping cart. I am careful not to touch my face in public. When I get back to the car, I use another alcohol wipe and clean my palms and fingers, basically all the surfaces of my hands that touch stuff while shopping. I do this before I touch the steering wheel. When I get home, I wash my hands carefully as soon as I have my coat off and before I touch anything. I view this as training for the emergency, so when it hits, the habits will be ingrained, and I will have worked out any flaws in my procedure. I am much better at it now than I was when I started 3 weeks ago.

I have also increased our inventory of household consumables and food over the last month so we can do 3 - 4 weeks without shopping.

If you have masks, save them for when you get sick. There will be no more for sale. All masks and gloves in every country are being seized by the government for the use by the health care system, which you can be sure, did not stockpile enough for this size emergency. They do not protect you from the virus, they only reduce the amount of virus containing micro droplets you exhale. The sick person in the house should be isolated, and wear a mask when others are in their room. The sick person should stay in a separate area if possible, and only interact by having food trays left outside their door and leaving the empty tray when done. Otherwise, minimal contact. We are lucky that most people how have a cell phone and most plans have unlimited calls. It's much safer to text or call them to ask how they are doing. If possible, the sick person should use a different toilet.

This may sound extreme, but I'm 70 and want to keep on having birthdays.
 
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Mr.Rob

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@Mike Silvertree

What's your take on buying groceries since everything you buy could potentially be contaminated. I guess that's what the food reserves are for... But let's say the outbreak lasts more than a month (which good chance it will based on what happened in China of your in an epicenter) then how do you get groceries? I.e. are you going to sanitize every box/can you buy and thoroughly Cook any vegetables etc?

I know the virus can survive on hard surfaces up to 2-3 weeks (metal is the longest), and I haven't been able to find much on the topic of this.

It's like "wash hands after going grocery shopping" but somehow everything you buy at the store is not supposed to be contaminated.

Anyway just a side tangent I've been thinking about.

Unfortunately I have underlying health issues and have to be cautious of this thing.
 

Seppuku

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Sometimes we need to step back and put things in perspective a little bit. Drawing my numbers from Wikipedia:

Car traffic causes around 1,350,000 deaths per year. A normal influenza causes somewhere between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths every year. By these numbers, between December 1st and February 29th we should have had about 330,000 dead from the road, and 100,000 dead from the flu. In the same period, the coronavirus killed around 3,800.

Today, airlines are cancelling flights, some airlines going bankrupt, some countries are setting up quarantines, the stock market drops 15%. It seems to me that the media have blown things out of proportions, which in turn is causing some panic. Yet at the moment, we are not even close to reaching the death toll of a normal, seasonal flu.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic caused between 17 and 50 millions estimated deaths, over a period of two years. However the bulk of that was during the second wave of the epidemics, between September and December 1918. You can guestimate a death rate in the order of several millions per month during this period.

This is the order of magnitude of what to expect from a serious, deadly pandemic.

Yes, this coronavirus outbreak has the potential to become a serious threat, and I do not mean to minimize this potential. I don't know where we will be 3 months from now, but today, based on the Wikipedia numbers, we are nowhere near this.

My two cents.
 
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Mr.Rob

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Yes, this coronavirus outbreak has the potential to become a serious threat, and I do not mean to minimize this potential. I don't know where we will be 3 months from now, but today, based on the Wikipedia numbers, we are nowhere near this.

I do agree 100%. Thanks for pointing this out.

My thought line goes on the current numbers (which are prone to change as more data comes out) that the rate of spread the last paper I saw on it was for every person infected they will infect I think 2.3 ppl vs the flu which on average an infected person will infect 1.3 new people. Thus it seems to be much more contagious.

Now your absolutely right on the numbers that there is currently an miniscule fraction of people infected vs ppl with the flu this year.

I more do just wonder if that will change and grow. Time will tell.

My personal concern is not so much dying as much as if I were to get any flu (especially Coronavirus) will set me back for weeks/months.

So I say that to hopefully tame down any fear mongering, as ive got a foot in each camp of thought (it's not a big deal / if this thing we're to take off I want to be prepared
 

ulrich

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Sometimes we need to step back and put things in perspective a little bit. Drawing my numbers from Wikipedia:

Car traffic causes around 1,350,000 deaths per year. A normal influenza causes somewhere between 290,000 and 650,000 deaths every year. By these numbers, between December 1st and February 29th we should have had about 330,000 dead from the road, and 100,000 dead from the flu. In the same period, the coronavirus killed around 3,800.

The big deal here is not only the mortality rate (which is not high in itself). You have to take in consideration the high risk of contagion and the long incubation period.
A couple of important concerns:

1) There's a chance that even people with low risk of death (young, healthy) could develop lifetime sequels like impaired pulmonary function. There's not enough information to confirm or discard at the moment.

2) If left unattended this highly contagious virus could infect a huge percentage of the population much faster than the current installed medical capacity can handle. This could lead to many people not getting the care they need and dying from an "easily curable" desease.
 

DarkKnight

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Skills pretty much every sector is suffering right now, even hospitals so no reason to be surprised.
 

The Emerald Archer

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My brother's college just cancelled in-person classes for the next ~3 weeks due to the virus. Then, at the end of March, it will be online instruction for the remainder of the semester. Pretty crazy stuff.

I was half-skeptical of the seriousness of COVID-19, mainly because it's no surprise the media loves to create hysteria and prey on people's fears and emotions. I'm not saying I thought it was a hoax or nothing to be concerned about, just blown a little out of proportion maybe.

I was watching clips from Joe Rogan's recent podcast with Michael Osterholm (who dubs himself a "medical detective") and according to him things are just beginning (pain, suffering and deaths) and believes things will continue for months.

Osterholm thinks COVID-19 will be at least 10-15x worse than the worst seasonal flu we typically see in term of just illnesses. He estimates this could require (conservatively) about:
  • 48 million hospitalizations
  • 96 million cases occurring
  • >480,000 deaths
...all within the next 3-7 months.

Here's the clip I got this from: How Serious is the Coronavirus? Infectious Disease Expert Michael Osterholm Explains | Joe Rogan

I don't mean to scare anyone (especially our "senior" members) and this is only 1 person's opinion. I'm still very skeptical and have a lot of questioning to do for myself. And I still believe that the media has gone way too far in inciting a public panic and scaring everyone/creating a hysteria, but then again what else do you expect from the MSM?

Here's a couple resources I will be combing through in the next week or so that you guys can check out for further reading:
 

Mike Silvertree

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@Mr.Rob:What's your take on buying groceries since everything you buy could potentially be contaminated. I guess that's what the food reserves are for... But let's say the outbreak lasts more than a month (which good chance it will based on what happened in China of your in an epicenter) then how do you get groceries? I.e. are you going to sanitize every box/can you buy and thoroughly Cook any vegetables etc?

We can probably make it a month on our stockpiles. The grocery store we frequent has a service where you can shop on line and they deliver any amount of groceries for $7.95 USD. We will use that if we start to run low. I also have bought a lot of bottles of 70% isopropyl alcohol, and I have saved and rinsed out a bottle of window cleaner. That will get filled with alcohol, and I have stockpiled paper towels. If we run low on food, I will use that service, open the garage door and have them leave the food in the garage. I will put on nitrile gloves and a mask and spray each item with alcohol and wipe it dry.

I am actually much more worried about a breakdown in our economic system. In China, a major problem they face is people are too scared to go to work, which is leading to systemic collapse. Truck drivers and dock workers are refusing to report for work, even in areas where it is safe. This means the whole distribution system of food and supplies is non functional. Food comes from rural areas, and gets eaten in cities where most of the people live. (Including me.) When the system that moves food from rural to urban areas fails, you have a serious problem.

I am worried about that happening here, because I expect the outbreaks to happen in cities. Ask yourself, if Chicago has a major epidemic underway and you are a country boy from Southern Illinois where it is farm country and safe, do you really want to drive a truckload of food into Chicago? You have plenty to eat, you live on a farm.

I am also worried because China has aggressively taken over many areas of the Western economy using predatory pricing to gain market dominance. Especially in plastics. I have noticed that the brands of plastic bags and food wrap I use are made in China. If they own say, the plastic bottle, bag, film, and jar business, what happens to food distribution if they suddenly run out of containers to package the food in. You can make all the peanut butter, jam, mayo, and pickles you want, but if you have no containers, how do you deliver them to market? We are going to find out how dependent we are on China in the next few weeks. Several weeks ago S Korean auto assembly halted because they ran out of China sourced parts. In any manufactured item, if one part is not available, the assembly line stops. I wonder, how many things we depend on that have at least one part made in China?
 

DarkKnight

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@Mike Silvertree

Finally someone who understands the extent of the problem and the big picture. I do not think your measures are extreme at all, but I am certain that the genie is out of the bottle. Way too many people have underestimated this problem because of governments who did not want to spread panic. I also see how logistical lines will collapse, just look at Italy which has closed off all borders. At the moment I am stockpiling goods which can be conserved and used. If I am wrong and the problem is not as bad as I think it is: great, I will use the same goods anyway, no money lost. However if this virus really escalates I will be at least somehwat prepared as you are.
 

punisher

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Eh it's a good time to buy stock right now ;) $$$

I would wait, i think the stocks will drop more as soon WHO declares it an official pandemic. And once the cure that will be tested in 4 weeks time turns out to work, then buy, what do you think?

EDIT: As of 17:30 gmt+1 time, WHO has declared it a pandemic, stocks are going down
 
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Mr.Rob

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EDIT: As of 17:30 gmt+1 time, WHO has declared it a pandemic, stocks are going down

That's hilarious.

Na yeah I think your totally right. There should be plenty of more events that will cause stocks to go down in the next 2 months. When the virus spreads more rapidly through America and people stop showing up to sporting events etc and stop going to malls etc then I think that will create a new low.

I suppose the trick is to choose the right companies that are going to bounce back hard and without issue after this whole thing blows over. (Airlines?)


And once the cure that will be tested in 4 weeks time turns out to work, then buy, what do you think?

Hmmm, hadn't thought of that. Well I wouldn't bet the ranch it will work for one.

Your reasoning to do that would be because then there is a more definite shot things will pick up quickly after that and no chance of global recession? or another reason?
 

Mr.Rob

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@Mike Silvertree

Wow that's pretty thorough on the grocery disinfecting but I suppose necessary. Personally I'd things get out of hand where it's time to stay home I'm going to order food 3 weeks in advance and just let it sit in the corner of the garage for 3 weeks (virus can only survive up to 3 weeks on metal [double check that though]). Then every week I'll order 1 weeks worth of food for 3 weeks later.

That's of course if the grocery store is still offering curb side pickup. If that's the case then I have a WW2 gas mask from my childhood playing war that I'll rock up to Walmart and go shopping in XD ... Well maybe not that extreme but we'll see.

Interesting thoughts on the supply chain potential issues, I personally don't see this happening unless things get very dire but it certainly is a worst case scenario. I think people and Americans will step up to the plate to make things happen. But it is a possibility to keep in mind. I suppose it's nice we have these other countries to look at to see what happens to them as an example.

I don't believe that extreme of an issue happened in China from what I've seen but they also did a great job of quarantining the virus which may have made it more appealing for workers (and I have my doubts that America will go to those extremes).
 
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