- Joined
- Nov 14, 2017
- Messages
- 315
I have to decide right now to either return to the sinister West for months, or else stay away, but at significant financial risk.
Six months ago, I fled my Western country mere days before exiting would have — blatantly against our constitution — required me to take an experimental vaccine which fails to protect others against a usually non‑fatal virus. (I related my plan in the “more to COVID” thread — thanks @Regal Tiger and @aeroz for the responses of understanding. I still have unposted drafts for that thread!)
The plan had been a pit stop in Central America, then a move to East Africa. I had been very much wanting to move to Africa, anyway.
Well, six months later Iʼm still in Central America, due to a combination of delays, distractions and details. I still want to move on to Africa, but now I have a big problem.
My current main income is a double-edged sword. It is usually low effort, leaving me tons of time to pursue other goals. However, its stability is tied to my home city; I have gotten away with handling things remotely for months, but this is fragile.
My plan is to address this fragility by setting up another income which is totally independent of my location. Unfortunately it is not as time-efficient, but Ugandaʼs low cost of living mitigates this to a degree.
This will take some time to set up. I had been hoping that business back home would just hum along in the meantime, but unfortunately that is now threatening to collapse very soon if I donʼt return and manage things in person for a few months at least. I could just let it collapse, but then I lose most income until I get the new scheme going, forcing me to tap reserve resources in a way that is highly inadvisable.
Going back for a while would have a number of advantages:
Seems like a no-brainer, except that there are also some very concerning threats right now if I go back home:
In trying to weigh the costs of returning vs. staying away, clearly staying away has definite and significant costs. Conversely, the definite costs of returning home are considerably less. But returning also has the potential to incur a catastrophic cost. Mathematically, which option has the lower expected cost hinges on the probability that a catastrophic outcome actually occurs if I go home.
And that is where I am at a loss. That probability depends on a highly complex world about which I have only limited and often intentionally obfuscated information.
At least to a point, the probability increases the longer I stay in the West. Thus, if I do return, my objective will be to get back out as soon as practicable. Unfortunately, my time back could easily exceed six months if Iʼm hit with any of lifeʼs usual complications and sidetracks. (Shit, Iʼve been in this little town six months and I donʼt even know where the time went!)
But is the short-term probability of disaster high enough that I shouldnʼt even risk returning at all? Is the risk so great that I ought to endure formidable financial stress and risk so as to safeguard my liberty and physical security?
I somewhat think that the difficulties that not returning will cause me, outweigh the short-term risk of being in the West, because the probability of some terror befalling me within this time frame is low.
But every time I turn on the news, I have to question that thinking. The threats seem to be accelerating.
Does anyone have any insights into how I might bring clarity to this decision?
Is anyone else here facing a similarly difficult choice about physical presence in the West? Or, can anyone relate to the level of immediate apprehension I have? Does it seem justified?
Six months ago, I fled my Western country mere days before exiting would have — blatantly against our constitution — required me to take an experimental vaccine which fails to protect others against a usually non‑fatal virus. (I related my plan in the “more to COVID” thread — thanks @Regal Tiger and @aeroz for the responses of understanding. I still have unposted drafts for that thread!)
The plan had been a pit stop in Central America, then a move to East Africa. I had been very much wanting to move to Africa, anyway.
Well, six months later Iʼm still in Central America, due to a combination of delays, distractions and details. I still want to move on to Africa, but now I have a big problem.
My current main income is a double-edged sword. It is usually low effort, leaving me tons of time to pursue other goals. However, its stability is tied to my home city; I have gotten away with handling things remotely for months, but this is fragile.
My plan is to address this fragility by setting up another income which is totally independent of my location. Unfortunately it is not as time-efficient, but Ugandaʼs low cost of living mitigates this to a degree.
This will take some time to set up. I had been hoping that business back home would just hum along in the meantime, but unfortunately that is now threatening to collapse very soon if I donʼt return and manage things in person for a few months at least. I could just let it collapse, but then I lose most income until I get the new scheme going, forcing me to tap reserve resources in a way that is highly inadvisable.
Going back for a while would have a number of advantages:
- I could likely stabilize the present income source. At some point it might tolerate another extended absence.
- I could retrieve some equipment and data which I did not take with me out of haste.
- I could do the initial setup for the new income source cheaper, faster, and/or better.
- It would extinguish various extra costs and annoyances incurred by my living temporarily in this low-population place. It might also make game easier, since the low population here has been problematic.
- It could lessen otherwise intense short-term financial pressures upon first moving to Africa — pressure that could also be deleterious to getting into “state” to do approaches, right at the most critical point in the formation of my abundance mentality.
- It would be by far the easiest way to get the tropical vaccines and meds I want to have for Africa.
- I could catch up on various healthcare for free that Iʼd likely have to pay for anywhere else.
Seems like a no-brainer, except that there are also some very concerning threats right now if I go back home:
- Complacency. Iʼd been wanting to go live in Africa since 2017, yet never managed to actually get on a plane to that end — until my back was to the wall with a vaccine mandate. Iʼm scared that if I return home, it might fade back into a “one day Iʼm going to.”
- Vaccine mandates. My country now makes it next to impossible to exit without the “COVID” vaccine. I now have the first two doses on paper, but I am terrified that our tyrannical leaders could at any moment decide that I canʼt leave again without a booster. Iʼm already eligible. And, some of the Westernized countries along typical airfares to Uganda already wonʼt let me transit without a booster if I wait much longer. Getting the next dose on paper is easier and more reliable in my present location — if I go home, it gets trickier.
- Authoritarianism. In the West, governments and corporations are gradually putting a stranglehold on free speech and ubiquitizing surveillance. Laws are targeting dissent, science is being bastardized in the name of authority, and the masses are being herded by mainstream media into mindless obedience. My countryʼs current leader is the closest thing to a dictator we have ever had. He shuts down his opponents with baseless accusations of racism and has even used extraordinary measures against protesters. Yet I have friends who just go on making excuses for him. I am scared that if I go back, sooner or later, he will stop me from ever leaving. Weʼre still far from North Korea or China, so I at least assume Iʼd have ample warning to leave again before it gets to that, but present trends still make me nervous.
- Nuclear bombs. Global stability seems to be unraveling at a frightening pace, with rising tensions in multiple countries and regions. With all the saber-rattling and even doomsday threats, Iʼm concerned that I might be flying myself into a nuclear war. I realize that even the ruling class wouldnʼt want all‑out nuclear war, but miscalculations or mishaps are still a risk — the Cold War had some close calls! In a large-scale nuclear exchange, I would be far better off either right where I am or in Africa than I would be back home.
- Conscription. If nobody is crazy enough to launch nukes, there is still a risk of widespread, protracted conventional war. I donʼt want to sacrifice my life for some elites. Not sure if my home country could force me back or even if my little host country might try to enlist me instead, but Iʼd still feel much safer either here or in Uganda than back home. Well, unlike nuclear war, this eventuality isnʼt going to happen overnight — but if once I am back, travel becomes impossible, then Iʼm still just as screwed.
In trying to weigh the costs of returning vs. staying away, clearly staying away has definite and significant costs. Conversely, the definite costs of returning home are considerably less. But returning also has the potential to incur a catastrophic cost. Mathematically, which option has the lower expected cost hinges on the probability that a catastrophic outcome actually occurs if I go home.
And that is where I am at a loss. That probability depends on a highly complex world about which I have only limited and often intentionally obfuscated information.
At least to a point, the probability increases the longer I stay in the West. Thus, if I do return, my objective will be to get back out as soon as practicable. Unfortunately, my time back could easily exceed six months if Iʼm hit with any of lifeʼs usual complications and sidetracks. (Shit, Iʼve been in this little town six months and I donʼt even know where the time went!)
But is the short-term probability of disaster high enough that I shouldnʼt even risk returning at all? Is the risk so great that I ought to endure formidable financial stress and risk so as to safeguard my liberty and physical security?
I somewhat think that the difficulties that not returning will cause me, outweigh the short-term risk of being in the West, because the probability of some terror befalling me within this time frame is low.
But every time I turn on the news, I have to question that thinking. The threats seem to be accelerating.
Does anyone have any insights into how I might bring clarity to this decision?
Is anyone else here facing a similarly difficult choice about physical presence in the West? Or, can anyone relate to the level of immediate apprehension I have? Does it seem justified?