Stock Market Bubble Popping Anytime Soon?

Ambiance

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Sup playas, thought I'd consult my favorite forum about your thoughts on the state of Wall Street. As a lot of you probably know, leading up to and following Coronavirus the booming stock market took an unprecedented dive, and immediately after certain sectors shot way back up (namely tech stocks). The most notable examples imo include Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia. I've been playing around and making very nice returns, but I also can't help thinking a lot of the sentiment going around parallels bubbles at their pinnacle from the past. So many tech stocks have been flooded to that they no longer come close to traditional valuation methods. Then again, we live in unprecedented times with the massive amount of quantitative easing going on. I believe Trump and his Fed will try to keep the stock market going strong at all costs leading up to his election. What do you enlightened, unplugged thinkers reason? A massive reckoning is coming, that I'm sure of, but who's to say it won't be pushed back for awhile?
 

DarkKnight

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I'm not sure if asking a board of seducers is a great idea. Stock markets are not for everyone. I'll chime in though.

I for one do not think amazon or tesla are bubbles.. they have truly won while the competition has suffered. Both the regular offline shops and conventional car manifacturers have suffered horribly. Tesla and amazon will probably gain in momentum for the coming years. The other brands I have no idea.

About keeping the stock markets strong : I agree. It is all about having the longest breath and keeping appearances right now. It has been so since the beginning of the crisis. Until the end of the crisis everyone will keep posturing in order to keep public confidence in their economy. About the elections of trump ; no idea i dont follow usa politics closely
 

Chase

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The two very smart finance people I'm friends with have been predicting a major recession or depression in 2020 for several years now.

Seems like the stock market is in a significant bubble. The unprecedented QE is a big part of the reason; tech stocks are exploding in particular as the real economy crumbles.

Taking the broader view, inflation has continued at breakneck pace; price inflation since the year 2000 has been 50.47%; if you go by the price of gold, price inflation has actually been nearly 80%. Going by that 50% inflation figure, if you had $50,000 in the bank in 2000 and didn't invest it and collected no interest on it, it'd have lost 1/3 of its 2000 buying power and you'd be able to buy only about 2/3 as much with that $50K today as you could have 20 years ago.

This creates a problem re: where to keep your money. If you keep it in cash you are dripping wealth over time (due to inflation). If you stick it in the stock market, that's good so long as the stocks keep going up and up. But they can't/don't/won't always. Inflation is not going to stop either; every large government is drowning in debt, and the way it keeps its head above water is by printing more money to make its debt burden relatively lesser. Any time inflation slows, and the government is in danger of getting crippled by its debt, it can just print more money (and does). Inflation is a feature of the system, and is not going to go away.

What looks like is going to happen is that a.) we'll enter a recession/depression (the MSM was saying "this could be worse than the Great Depression" back in March; they're not saying that anymore, even though the real economy actually looks worse than it did in April), b.) but inflation will continue.

In an inflationary recession, you typically want to put your money into precious metals (as both stocks and cash are declining in value). Here's how gold performed after the 2008 recession, when it nearly 3x'ed in value compared to 2007, then settled at about 2x its 2007 numbers for about 6 years, before starting to climb rapidly again mid-2019:

gold_30_year_o_usd_x.png


My friend Patrick is the former head of the USMC budget out of the Pentagon. He's the one who introduced me to inflationary vs. deflationary recession vs. not investing principles. He has a good book on it (and general investing) anyone may want to give a read here:


I am seeing a lot of stuff now suggesting the place to be is precious metals and/or Bitcoin, which is being treated as a kind of "digital gold" at this point. There are various predictions about Bitcoin gearing up for another bull run (here's one by the former CEO of Prudential).

Anyway -- I am not an expert and this is not investing advice. Obviously.

The truth though is nobody actually knows. The market is a largely emotional thing driven by people's confidence or lack thereof in various investment vehicles.

Here's the counterpoint to the "market bubble might pop soon" thinking: Donald Trump took control of the Federal Reserve (which was previously operated exclusively by private bankers) by gaining control of nearly all the seats on the Fed's board of governors (he's appointed 4 of the 5 current governors, and has nominees for the two additional vacant seats; governors have 14-year terms), then folding it in under the Department of the Treasury. It seems like you're aware of this, @Ambiance. While the Fed might've let the economy go into a recession previously (thus most likely nuking Trump's chances at reelection), he's the one at the helm of money-printing now. And he's likely to keep pumping as much money into the market as he needs to keep the stock market afloat, at least until his reelection. What happens after that? Nobody knows.

So -- the market's in a bubble, I think is clear.

But the bubble might extend for some time.

The Fed might keep pumping more and more money into the market on Trump's direction.

Trump likes to look like he's winning. So he might just keep having them do that for the next four years too, if he wins.

If Biden wins, he isn't going to want to get in there and have a market collapse. So he, too, might direct the Fed (now that it's under Department of the Treasury control) to just keep flooding the markets with cash.

This is good short-term, if you don't want a crash. It is probably not-so-good long-term, as the bubble gets pumped bigger and bigger and bigger before the inevitable crash.

Regardless it could well be the situation that the depression we were probably due for this year, and should by rights experience, considering all the business closures and layoffs and furloughs for jobs that probably aren't coming back in addition to all the problems that were already there pre-lockdowns, gets pushed off another 2 or 3 or 4+ years.

You'd expect at that point there to be a pretty horrific bubble popping. But who knows? Folks were saying that about the 2008 recession. But while that got a bit bad, it didn't go nearly as bad as many thought.

The truth is, nobody really knows what's going on. No one has a good handle on what the actual likely timelines are.

Chase
 

hotsauce

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i recently graduated w a finance degree. i'm wise enough to know that it doesn't mean a whole lot. it's basically speculation. i don't really have any original thoughts on the matter. but here are some things that might be interesting:

'The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions—a joke from master Keynesian of decades ago Paul Samuelson.'



sorry to only post links. but i don't want to sit here and pretend like i understand what's going on. just pointing to some main things i'm looking at. i found the bubbles for famas article while trying to figure out if i could short btc when it ran up a few years back ha.

but also the QE is pretty crazy to think about. money doesn't really work when it's just printed out w no debt attached to it.

also the US is in an official recession
 

Ambiance

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Messages
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Beyond the Great Vast Forest
The two very smart finance people I'm friends with have been predicting a major recession or depression in 2020 for several years now.

Seems like the stock market is in a significant bubble. The unprecedented QE is a big part of the reason; tech stocks are exploding in particular as the real economy crumbles.

Taking the broader view, inflation has continued at breakneck pace; price inflation since the year 2000 has been 50.47%; if you go by the price of gold, price inflation has actually been nearly 80%. Going by that 50% inflation figure, if you had $50,000 in the bank in 2000 and didn't invest it and collected no interest on it, it'd have lost 1/3 of its 2000 buying power and you'd be able to buy only about 2/3 as much with that $50K today as you could have 20 years ago.

This creates a problem re: where to keep your money. If you keep it in cash you are dripping wealth over time (due to inflation). If you stick it in the stock market, that's good so long as the stocks keep going up and up. But they can't/don't/won't always. Inflation is not going to stop either; every large government is drowning in debt, and the way it keeps its head above water is by printing more money to make its debt burden relatively lesser. Any time inflation slows, and the government is in danger of getting crippled by its debt, it can just print more money (and does). Inflation is a feature of the system, and is not going to go away.

What looks like is going to happen is that a.) we'll enter a recession/depression (the MSM was saying "this could be worse than the Great Depression" back in March; they're not saying that anymore, even though the real economy actually looks worse than it did in April), b.) but inflation will continue.

In an inflationary recession, you typically want to put your money into precious metals (as both stocks and cash are declining in value). Here's how gold performed after the 2008 recession, when it nearly 3x'ed in value compared to 2007, then settled at about 2x its 2007 numbers for about 6 years, before starting to climb rapidly again mid-2019:

gold_30_year_o_usd_x.png


My friend Patrick is the former head of the USMC budget out of the Pentagon. He's the one who introduced me to inflationary vs. deflationary recession vs. not investing principles. He has a good book on it (and general investing) anyone may want to give a read here:


I am seeing a lot of stuff now suggesting the place to be is precious metals and/or Bitcoin, which is being treated as a kind of "digital gold" at this point. There are various predictions about Bitcoin gearing up for another bull run (here's one by the former CEO of Prudential).

Anyway -- I am not an expert and this is not investing advice. Obviously.

The truth though is nobody actually knows. The market is a largely emotional thing driven by people's confidence or lack thereof in various investment vehicles.

Here's the counterpoint to the "market bubble might pop soon" thinking: Donald Trump took control of the Federal Reserve (which was previously operated exclusively by private bankers) by gaining control of nearly all the seats on the Fed's board of governors (he's appointed 4 of the 5 current governors, and has nominees for the two additional vacant seats; governors have 14-year terms), then folding it in under the Department of the Treasury. It seems like you're aware of this, @Ambiance. While the Fed might've let the economy go into a recession previously (thus most likely nuking Trump's chances at reelection), he's the one at the helm of money-printing now. And he's likely to keep pumping as much money into the market as he needs to keep the stock market afloat, at least until his reelection. What happens after that? Nobody knows.

So -- the market's in a bubble, I think is clear.

But the bubble might extend for some time.

The Fed might keep pumping more and more money into the market on Trump's direction.

Trump likes to look like he's winning. So he might just keep having them do that for the next four years too, if he wins.

If Biden wins, he isn't going to want to get in there and have a market collapse. So he, too, might direct the Fed (now that it's under Department of the Treasury control) to just keep flooding the markets with cash.

This is good short-term, if you don't want a crash. It is probably not-so-good long-term, as the bubble gets pumped bigger and bigger and bigger before the inevitable crash.

Regardless it could well be the situation that the depression we were probably due for this year, and should by rights experience, considering all the business closures and layoffs and furloughs for jobs that probably aren't coming back in addition to all the problems that were already there pre-lockdowns, gets pushed off another 2 or 3 or 4+ years.

You'd expect at that point there to be a pretty horrific bubble popping. But who knows? Folks were saying that about the 2008 recession. But while that got a bit bad, it didn't go nearly as bad as many thought.

The truth is, nobody really knows what's going on. No one has a good handle on what the actual likely timelines are.

Chase
Great thoughts as always Chase. You picked up on the real reason I started this thread: figuring out where one can weather the approaching storm. Based on your points I'm further convinced the market will be a more than safe bet at least up until November (which goes against the norm - election years tend to underperform other years due to the uncertainty of who will be president... Trump having the Fed in his pocket changes things). After that all bets are off, like you said. Being in gold and to some extent silver has always been the safe bet to combat hyperinflation, mainly because you can't print them, but gold has its weaknesses. It's not readily accessible to the public, there isn't much of it to begin with (the Earth possesses enough for about 4 Olympic pools, which seems like a lot but really isn't, and we already have around 3/4s of it), and something could always happen to the gold supply. Not to mention governments hate them since they take away from their power.

Cryptocurrencies try to get around these problems, but are rife with their own. Governments hate them, and actively try to undermine them(pun intended). They have a shady reputation due to being affiliated with the dark web. You have to own a good amount of hardware to effectively store them from what I understand. And even if they take off, who knows if Bitcoin is to some future successor as MySpace is to Facebook?

My thought is owning property and means of production are the best bet, assuming a major recession is coming. Property at least in America is expensive (though rates are super low... been thinking of contracting a place then renting it out. Probably best to jump in right as soon as the virus is an afterthought so I can find good renters easier). Blackdragon, who I know you're pretty familiar with, recommends getting property in up and coming places, namely in Southwest Asia. This would take some doing, especially if I don't want to live in those countries.

All in all, lots of uncertainty. If things go south, most investors will flock to gold, so that's a safe bet at least until some form of higher currency makes itself apparent. Think I'm gonna take a lot of my winnings out sometime around/after the election, and put them in gold. Hopefully gold has fallen a bit by then. Then I'll monitor rates and the virus and figure out a good time to get into property.
 
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housecards

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Congrats on making the killing in those stocks. Seems like you grasp the idea that productive assets are better investment in the long run than gold, which is a nonproductive asset that tends to go up when fear/panic goes up. Here is America’s greatest investor’s take: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/warren-buffett-bashes-gold-2019-2-1027977003

There is no doubt that the market in the short run is heavily influenced by the Fed and liquidity, but in the long run, it’s pretty good at sorting out winners and losers. If you got to buy real business winners (not just a stock winner) with dominant competitive position like AAPL, AMZN, or NVDA in the cheap, then unless they rise to a ridiculously high level, say the expected earnings yields or cash flow yields are lower than their corporate bond yields, then there is really no reason to swap out winners, simply because the big money comes from compounding in the long term.

Also, in case you are thinking about getting out of the position, take the tax consequences into account. At least in the US, there is a big difference in the tax rate on capital gains for investments held between less than one year and those held more than one year. Some states also tax at a ridiculously high short term capital gains rate, and they tend to have a few points on long term gains, too.

Most importantly though, make sure you are in a good emotional state with a cool head and good sleep and all that. Impulses and emotions really dictate a large part of buying and selling. Just show how much emotions can have a huge influence, I took some quick winnings out of two of the companies mentioned earlier last year on the way up when I was pretty stressed in other parts of life, just wishing (not thinking) that they and the market might go down and I can buy them cheaper. And that’s big mistake that never show up on any income statement. As a result, I not only missed on 3X gains, but also wrote a big ass check to Treasury this year. Incidentally their prices never fell back to the lows during the 2018 holiday season, which was when I began to accumulate the positions.

Just as Chase said, nobody knows the timing. (Not even Warren Buffett. Here is his famous article in the height of financial panic in 2008, before the market plunged another 30% to the bottom: Buy American. I am.)

Keep a cool head (am I owning this because it’s a truly wonderful business, or a just a great stock that has experienced some great market action?), and keep those god damn taxes in mind.
 
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hotsauce

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Great thoughts as always Chase. You picked up on the real reason I started this thread: figuring out where one can weather the approaching storm. Based on your points I'm further convinced the market will be a more than safe bet at least up until November (which goes against the norm - election years tend to underperform other years due to the uncertainty of who will be president... Trump having the Fed in his pocket changes things). After that all bets are off, like you said. Being in gold and to some extent silver has always been the safe bet to combat hyperinflation, mainly because you can't print them, but gold has its weaknesses. It's not readily accessible to the public, there isn't much of it to begin with (the Earth possesses enough for about 4 Olympic pools, which seems like a lot but really isn't, and we already have around 3/4s of it), and something could always happen to the gold supply. Not to mention governments hate them since they take away from their power.

Cryptocurrencies try to get around these problems, but are rife with their own. Governments hate them, and actively try to undermine them(pun intended). They have a shady reputation due to being affiliated with the dark web. You have to own a good amount of hardware to effectively store them from what I understand. And even if they take off, who knows if Bitcoin is to some future successor as MySpace is to Facebook?

My thought is owning property and means of production are the best bet, assuming a major recession is coming. Property at least in America is expensive (though rates are super low... been thinking of contracting a place then renting it out. Probably best to jump in right as soon as the virus is an afterthought so I can find good renters easier). Blackdragon, who I know you're pretty familiar with, recommends getting property in up and coming places, namely in Southwest Asia. This would take some doing, especially if I don't want to live in those countries.

All in all, lots of uncertainty. If things go south, most investors will flock to gold, so that's a safe bet at least until some form of higher currency makes itself apparent. Think I'm gonna take a lot of my winnings out sometime around/after the election, and put them in gold. Hopefully gold has fallen a bit by then. Then I'll monitor rates and the virus and figure out a good time to get into property.

us treasury bonds would be safest bet in preserving purchasing power in the mean time. or switzerland/japan/sweden govt bonds, they actually have a negative yields because of how safe they are.

crypto is so volatile i completely avoid but i guess it has a lot of uses

property is its own beast
 
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FrancoDanko

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The two very smart finance people I'm friends with have been predicting a major recession or depression in 2020 for several years now.

Seems like the stock market is in a significant bubble. The unprecedented QE is a big part of the reason; tech stocks are exploding in particular as the real economy crumbles.

Taking the broader view, inflation has continued at breakneck pace; price inflation since the year 2000 has been 50.47%; if you go by the price of gold, price inflation has actually been nearly 80%. Going by that 50% inflation figure, if you had $50,000 in the bank in 2000 and didn't invest it and collected no interest on it, it'd have lost 1/3 of its 2000 buying power and you'd be able to buy only about 2/3 as much with that $50K today as you could have 20 years ago.

This creates a problem re: where to keep your money. If you keep it in cash you are dripping wealth over time (due to inflation). If you stick it in the stock market, that's good so long as the stocks keep going up and up. But they can't/don't/won't always. Inflation is not going to stop either; every large government is drowning in debt, and the way it keeps its head above water is by printing more money to make its debt burden relatively lesser. Any time inflation slows, and the government is in danger of getting crippled by its debt, it can just print more money (and does). Inflation is a feature of the system, and is not going to go away.

What looks like is going to happen is that a.) we'll enter a recession/depression (the MSM was saying "this could be worse than the Great Depression" back in March; they're not saying that anymore, even though the real economy actually looks worse than it did in April), b.) but inflation will continue.

In an inflationary recession, you typically want to put your money into precious metals (as both stocks and cash are declining in value). Here's how gold performed after the 2008 recession, when it nearly 3x'ed in value compared to 2007, then settled at about 2x its 2007 numbers for about 6 years, before starting to climb rapidly again mid-2019:

gold_30_year_o_usd_x.png


My friend Patrick is the former head of the USMC budget out of the Pentagon. He's the one who introduced me to inflationary vs. deflationary recession vs. not investing principles. He has a good book on it (and general investing) anyone may want to give a read here:


I am seeing a lot of stuff now suggesting the place to be is precious metals and/or Bitcoin, which is being treated as a kind of "digital gold" at this point. There are various predictions about Bitcoin gearing up for another bull run (here's one by the former CEO of Prudential).

Anyway -- I am not an expert and this is not investing advice. Obviously.

The truth though is nobody actually knows. The market is a largely emotional thing driven by people's confidence or lack thereof in various investment vehicles.

Here's the counterpoint to the "market bubble might pop soon" thinking: Donald Trump took control of the Federal Reserve (which was previously operated exclusively by private bankers) by gaining control of nearly all the seats on the Fed's board of governors (he's appointed 4 of the 5 current governors, and has nominees for the two additional vacant seats; governors have 14-year terms), then folding it in under the Department of the Treasury. It seems like you're aware of this, @Ambiance. While the Fed might've let the economy go into a recession previously (thus most likely nuking Trump's chances at reelection), he's the one at the helm of money-printing now. And he's likely to keep pumping as much money into the market as he needs to keep the stock market afloat, at least until his reelection. What happens after that? Nobody knows.

So -- the market's in a bubble, I think is clear.

But the bubble might extend for some time.

The Fed might keep pumping more and more money into the market on Trump's direction.

Trump likes to look like he's winning. So he might just keep having them do that for the next four years too, if he wins.

If Biden wins, he isn't going to want to get in there and have a market collapse. So he, too, might direct the Fed (now that it's under Department of the Treasury control) to just keep flooding the markets with cash.

This is good short-term, if you don't want a crash. It is probably not-so-good long-term, as the bubble gets pumped bigger and bigger and bigger before the inevitable crash.

Regardless it could well be the situation that the depression we were probably due for this year, and should by rights experience, considering all the business closures and layoffs and furloughs for jobs that probably aren't coming back in addition to all the problems that were already there pre-lockdowns, gets pushed off another 2 or 3 or 4+ years.

You'd expect at that point there to be a pretty horrific bubble popping. But who knows? Folks were saying that about the 2008 recession. But while that got a bit bad, it didn't go nearly as bad as many thought.

The truth is, nobody really knows what's going on. No one has a good handle on what the actual likely timelines are.

Chase

Despite not being an expert, that's a pretty interesting perspective, Chase! I'm a little new to the seduction scene, but finance/economics is more of my bread and butter. (I'm in the industry, to be fair)

IMO the stock market is rallying because it is forward-looking, everyone's "priced in" the idea that the market and economy's going to do well because of the Fed's accommodative policy. The economy is backwards-looking, it is telling us all the bad's that's happened well after its happened. The divergence can't last forever, one of them has to give (going by history, but no one knows what will). The odds are the stock market will as nothing is justifying the optimism.

The Fed's keeping rates low because they're hoping the US will use fiscal policy to support the country... and I don't have to tell you guys in the states the issue with getting another round of fiscal stimulus rolled out haha. IN MY OPINION, I believe the equity markets will probably go lower as its overextended and people are banking too much on a vaccine being released by the end of this year and have unrealistic expectations.

Of course, I've just given my views not investment advice.

An exciting time to be alive, I'm sure your finance friends would agree. Especially if you're the multi-asset/global macro type.
 
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FrancoDanko

Space Monkey
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And going by context, it seems we're focusing on the Dow. That's fine as we could argue that it's tied to US GDP which you can argue is effectively the world GDP.
 

FrancoDanko

Space Monkey
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Trump having the Fed in his pocket

Sure about that?

After that all bets are off, like you said. Being in gold and to some extent silver has always been the safe bet to combat hyperinflation, mainly because you can't print them, but gold has its weaknesses. It's not readily accessible to the public, there isn't much of it to begin with (the Earth possesses enough for about 4 Olympic pools, which seems like a lot but really isn't, and we already have around 3/4s of it), and something could always happen to the gold supply. Not to mention governments hate them since they take away from their power.

There's a bit of a myth here about gold. People go to gold more so when they're anxious and when they're losing faith in the USD (the world reserve currency). Governments don't hate gold, tbh-- its quite a political issue since the Bretton Woods system collapse hence we have the USD standard. And why people are looking for an alternative like Bitcoin and gold while the Fed's running the printers.

Cryptocurrencies try to get around these problems, but are rife with their own. Governments hate them, and actively try to undermine them(pun intended). They have a shady reputation due to being affiliated with the dark web. You have to own a good amount of hardware to effectively store them from what I understand. And even if they take off, who knows if Bitcoin is to some future successor as MySpace is to Facebook?

Governments hating crypto is old news, tbh. It not ideal for them, but it is in the system; the fact you can exchange crypto for actual currency. (Though, actual people in crypto, like deep into crypto would never do that as it means to them conceding crypto isn't real money lol.) Bitcoin was touted as a successor of the USD, the reserve currency... some reckon it might if the USD fails with all this printing and if it goes all wrong. Though, those could be ramblings of the permabears who always expect "shit to hit the fan", so to speak.

My thought is owning property and means of production are the best bet, assuming a major recession is coming. Property at least in America is expensive (though rates are super low... been thinking of contracting a place then renting it out. Probably best to jump in right as soon as the virus is an afterthought so I can find good renters easier). Blackdragon, who I know you're pretty familiar with, recommends getting property in up and coming places, namely in Southwest Asia. This would take some doing, especially if I don't want to live in those countries.

The recession is here, my dude. The COVID-19 recession. What's the thought process here with property? People in the UK like to throw that around too, but no real planning goes into it. I would suggest doing tons of research, and if you can educate yourself in this stuff (best thing I did) so you can question the recommendations of so-called experts. Oftentimes, you could find that your views may not coincide with theirs... or it might. It gives you that added level of security. Or find someone you trust, like a financial planner. In the US, I believe its someone who is CF30 regulated, IIRC?

All in all, lots of uncertainty. If things go south, most investors will flock to gold, so that's a safe bet at least until some form of higher currency makes itself apparent. Think I'm gonna take a lot of my winnings out sometime around/after the election, and put them in gold. Hopefully gold has fallen a bit by then. Then I'll monitor rates and the virus and figure out a good time to get into property.

What's the method here? The best way, imo, is to gauge sentiment. Elections are notoriously more volatile, especially in an era when polls have been consistently unreliable. Gold's also quite volatile... it also depends: are you going to buy-hold gold or are you going to trade it? Both will have heavily implications on your approach.
 

hotsauce

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us treasury bonds would be safest bet in preserving purchasing power in the mean time. or switzerland/japan/sweden govt bonds, they actually have a negative yields because of how safe they are.

crypto is so volatile i completely avoid but i guess it has a lot of uses

property is its own beast

lol the week after i make this post gold & s&p drop, treasuries go up & buffett invests big in japan.
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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237
I exclusively trade x3 bear/bull shares.

SOXL,,TECL are about 90% of my holdings right now. I also own bitcoin, eth. I’ve done very well but this week legit was a gigantic kick to my balls.

I personally think we are going to see a crash of apartment buildings. I just can’t fathom why the pricing of apartments is so god damn high. It does not seem to hold value plus the insurance rates plus the amount of money.

Millennials and zoomers are annoyed as shit. I think for North Americans the debt load is hitting places where it is not actually viable.

There is also a huge wave of nepotism in the work world at the moment.
 

FrancoDanko

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Sep 2, 2020
Messages
23
I exclusively trade x3 bear/bull shares.

SOXL,,TECL are about 90% of my holdings right now. I also own bitcoin, eth. I’ve done very well but this week legit was a gigantic kick to my balls.

I personally think we are going to see a crash of apartment buildings. I just can’t fathom why the pricing of apartments is so god damn high. It does not seem to hold value plus the insurance rates plus the amount of money.

Millennials and zoomers are annoyed as shit. I think for North Americans the debt load is hitting places where it is not actually viable.

There is also a huge wave of nepotism in the work world at the moment.

What's your strategy/view point?
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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Messages
237
What's your strategy/view point?

I’ve been buying stocks for about ten years, I see everything as going up except for banks and some other things.

The VIX is usually the best indicator of what is going on. When Covid was around inMarch I sold off all my vix shares. If the VIX hits up to over 70 dollars we are in for deep dogshit.
 

FrancoDanko

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Sep 2, 2020
Messages
23
I’ve been buying stocks for about ten years, I see everything as going up except for banks and some other things.

The VIX is usually the best indicator of what is going on. When Covid was around inMarch I sold off all my vix shares. If the VIX hits up to over 70 dollars we are in for deep dogshit.

That's quite awesome! I've only got more involved into single stocks over the past 15 months or so; before it was more stock indexes. Prior to that it's been 6 years in FICC and macro (though the FI part is more on the single stocks level tbh).

I've been benefiting from the CFD, Futures and options writing game mostly. For buy and hold, I'm anticipating a correction and looking to "buy some shares on sale" as it were.
 

hotsauce

Space Monkey
space monkey
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Apr 17, 2020
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And going by context, it seems we're focusing on the Dow. That's fine as we could argue that it's tied to US GDP which you can argue is effectively the world GDP.

the dow is for US companies. u can't say it's the world gdp because then you'd be ignoring every other country
 

FrancoDanko

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Sep 2, 2020
Messages
23
the dow is for US companies. u can't say it's the world gdp because then you'd be ignoring every other country

You could argue US GDP is a good representation of the world GDP as ISM data is highly correlated world GDP YoY, and it'll be the case for ISM and other country's GDP.

Hence what I said about the Dow.
 
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