Russia-Ukraine Thread

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climbingup

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Hey guys, can we talk about Ukraine in this thread? Or should I make a new one?

It is absolutely crazy what's happening. Russian tanks in Kyiv!
 

climbingup

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Good writeup from @Winston, I agree.

@Train,

Empires often become geopolitically semi-fluid if they get big enough. The power center in the Roman Empire shifted eventually from Rome to Constantinople, and Rome, the founding city and core of the empire for a very long time, eventually became relegated to being more or less just another city in the empire, and was eventually give up altogether as no longer worth maintaining (the descendants still living there where of those who FOUNDED the empire, but somehow the empire they founded had over time completely abandoned them and moved its seat elsewhere... weird to think about, right?). Similar things have happened in China (where the capital has moved many times) -- just think about the Mongol Empire, founded by Mongolians in Mongolia, but eventually ruled by Kublai Khan from Beijing with mostly Chinese advisors.

What we have in the West right now with the power really resting in the hands of massive, privately-owned banks and massive, largely-privately-owned corporations (they're on the stock exchanges, but much of the big corporations' stock is owned by Black Rock and Vanguard, either directly, or through thousands of shell companies), that are somewhat borderless.... many of the top people have wealth, property, and even citizenships spread around among several countries. You still need population bases and militaries (tied to specific countries) to enforce order or acquire new resources or coerce parties who aren't playing ball.

The relationship of the citizens of states within an empire to the empire itself is often complicated. Using the US as an example, Americans enjoyed unprecedented prosperity after WWII, when Europe's manufacturing capacity was destroyed and the US got to make everything and export it everywhere and funnel massive wealth into itself, with banks and corporations taking their cuts. Then around 1980 or so, with so much wealth in the US, Americans were too expensive to have profitably doing labor to export, so you saw a dynamic shift, where everything became about the same big banks and corporations building and funding projects to manufacture overseas and import that into the US, with, again, the banks and corporations taking their cuts as the wealth that had flowed into middle America flowed back out into the rest of the world again. So you could say middle America benefited from the empire for decades, and now it has been getting hollowed out by the same empire. People in the cities, closer to the banks and corporations or working or them directly, tend to do better than other people -- they're on the banks and corporations' payrolls (not coincidentally, people in cities tend to support imperial ambitions and causes, while people in the countryside no longer do).

From my reading of history, this seems to be a pretty normal part of the cycle too: during the early periods, when the empire is drawing in wealth from outside itself, the rising tide lifts all boats. Later on, when external wealth runs dry, it turns to extracting wealth from its own people, starting with those farthest from the city centers, since they have less direct access to the decision makers, little ability to affect anything at a civilization scale, and effects on them stay invisible longer to the folks making and enforcing the rules.

Maybe think of cities as the nerve centers of an empire... when the empire starts running out of fuel, it consumes the rest of the body first, trying to keep the nerves/brain alive. If one part of the body is healthier than the others, it will shift operations over to there. Thus the Roman empire shifted operations from Rome to Constantinople (better resources, better defenses, and much better trading position); the Mongol Empire moved from Mongolia (poor in resources and brain power) to Beijing (rich in both); the Western banking empire shifted operations from the UK to the US; etc.

If you think about an empire as sort of a system / control grid unto itself, it becomes a little easier to see how it can move itself gradually from one location to another. It's never immediate though -- usually there is a gradual transition where the two chunks are roughly equally powerful, until eventually the new seat supersedes the old one, and eventually starts bossing around the original seat of the empire.


@climbingup,



Only if we can discuss it at a high level.

We have Americans, Russians, and Ukrainians in our community.

I don't want any jingoism, media-zombie demonization of anyone, or flag-swinging rallying cries. If we get any partisan nonsense, I will lock the thread.

Chase

Alright cool cool understood and duly noted
 

Bismarck

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American (and by association Western) moral decay isn't an excuse for Russian aggression. Neither is the fact that the Ukraine sought to join NATO in order to have Article 5 to defend it in case Russia did what it ended up doing yesterday.

If Russia wasn't a dictatorship - and the fact that more than half of the Russians are against Putin but can do nothing to change their lot is irrefutable proof of this - the Ukrainians wouldn't have feared for their freedom.

Of course, the Ukrainians, seeing the wealth and freedom of the West, wanted to be involved.

Putin and Xi Jinping might ban feminism and homosexuals (such bans aren't, in and of themselves, necessarily laudable things), but I wouldn't give up my freedom to vote and be free to speak my mind without having to be behind a VPN or some other gimmick for any of that.

As for Western Europe being a "vassal" of the USA...it's true that France, Belgium, and the Netherlands were run over in six weeks by the National Socialists, a peculiar German phenomenon - the origin of the French chip on the shoulder (Napoleon, their great export, didn't speak or write good French, being of Italian stock) and German guilt underlining their post-modern post-national "state" ideas (re. the EU).

But after WWII the Americans spurred on European unification for chiefly economic reasons, and to this day don't like the idea of a rearmed Germany (they still have military bases on German soil). And this, from an international relations perspective, makes sense. France has the bomb and solid hard power, as do the British.

Undoubtedly, though, since the last War Europeans have been soothed by the "cradle to the grave" welfare state pied piper tunes they sing to themselves, a state of events which has only been possible whilst they rest on American arms for their defense. The last POTUS tried to revert this within NATO, with no success.
 

Chase

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Well, just keep it in perspective: Ukraine had a popularly elected government that was overthrown by the US in 2014 because the US viewed the democratic government as being too pro-Russia. Victoria Nuland from the US State Department is on record talking about how the US was installing all its own people in the Ukraine puppet government it set up after the coup d’etat. That coup cost the US $5 billion. They’ve had elections since then, but the pro-Russian parties are barred from running, so it’s like democracy, except you can only choose from the choices that’re already approved.

Here’s a good Western summary of the regime change operation the US ran in 2014 that also gives you some background on what is going on between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians within the country.

The only reason Ukraine exists as a separate entity is because the US and the UK cut a deal with Russia in the 1990s that all the former Soviet border states could separate from greater Russia under the condition that they would remain neutral, would not militarize, and would not join NATO. Since then, that agreement has been gradually but persistently worn away. NATO admitted a bunch of those states, and, led, by the US, they have proceeded to heavily arm them while agitating against Russia. All the missiles installed in the border states are pointed directly at Russia.

Putin said he talked to Bill Clinton in 2000 about the possibility of Russia joining NATO. Clinton’s response, he says, was to more or less laugh.

The Western media has maintained a complete blackout over what Ukraine has been doing in Donbas. It’s like Yemen or Palestine… it might as well not even exist. Westerners only know what the MSM programs them to know; if the MSM doesn’t want Westerners knowing about it, it blacks it out, and most Westerners will have zero idea anything is even afoot.

The fact is, there was already war going on in Ukraine. Ukraine was shelling Donetsk and massing troops at its border for an invasion. The shelling in Donetsk was so bad the militia there was unable to distribute potable water, and 21,000 residents did not have anything to drink. What do you think those Ukrainian troops massing at the border planned to do once they were finished shelling Donetsk… probably not call it a day and head back home, eh? There are more ethnic Russian than ethnic Ukrainian residents among the 3.6 million people in Donbas, and most people there speak Russian. Ukraine, before Donetsk and Luhansk declared their independence, had made the use of Russian in classrooms and commercial businesses illegal.

All this was engineered in Washington, DC. All the chaos, disorder, and insanity is typical CIA destabilization. All the money, weapons, and kickbacks flowing into Ukraine are coming from the US. Ukraine was being used as a proxy to put more and more pressure on Russia.

But that’s geopolitics for you. The US wants Russia regime-changed so it can get all the oligarchs and multinationals Russia expelled or nationalized in the early 2000s back in there in operation again looting Russia clean like they were before. The only way to do that is by creating enough chaos and disorder on Russia’s border by arming border states and regime-changing any that won’t go along willingly. They’ve been trying to destabilize Russia internally (why Russia has not banned Western social media like China yet is beyond me… the CIA operating through social media sites is how all these color revolutions get organized nowadays), but have only gained limited traction with that. The next best thing to do is to create enough pressure / disorder on the Russian border that the Russian military is stretched too thin trying to monitor the border, too much of the weak Russian economy goes to propping that up, the people become too unhappy with a stretched-thin economy threatened on all sides, and the regime collapses, and then the US moves back in, sets up its sweetheart deals for its billionaires and multinationals again, and Russian men resume drinking themselves to death in poverty and Russian women start another mass exodus from the country seeking wealthy foreign men abroad again.

The whole past eight years have been sad for Ukraine, from the revolution in 2014 to the invasion right now.

My hope for Ukraine is that Putin holds to what he said he would do: remove the neo-Nazis (i.e., the Ukrainian ethnonationalist party the US installed), demilitarize Ukraine (as the US, UK, and Russia all originally agreed would be the case anyway), secure the independence of the predominantly ethnic Russian states in Donbas, and then withdraw with minimal disruption and minimal casualties.

Let’s hope Russia is a kinder conqueror for Ukraine in 2022 than America has been since 2014.

Chase
 

Train

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Wow, reading through the history of Ukraine really opens one's eyes to the power of media and controlling what the masses see.

I've noticed many on social media who denounce the Ukraine invasion but zero mention of the history that led to that moment. Reminded of the Israel-Palestine issue that I think is way more nuanced than who attacked who in the last fifteen minutes. But decades of history aren't easy to condense into headlines or memes I guess haha.

Funnily enough, noticed both political sides of American media unified in their rebuke of current events when they're usually bickering against each other.
 

climbingup

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Do you think if Russia conquers Ukraine, that the US will simply find a way to take it back from Russia?

It's crazy I didn't know all that stuff about Ukraine. It seems sooner or later WW3 will be inevitable
 

Kvothe

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A few thoughts on the matter

1. I think Chase owes me an April Fools article :p

Next April 1 article confirmed-Seduction during a World War

Hopefully this comment remains a joke and does not prove to be prescient :p

2. Regarding the finiteness of power-I think this is why Elon's goal to make humans multi-planetary is so fascinating. I could imagine that the total amount of power in the world can only grow by technological advancement. If the resources on Mars were available, and cheaper than trying to steal it from thy neighbor, well that would be an interesting development wouldn't it?

3. While it's very interesting to discuss these large-scale geopolitical matters, it's also worth remembering that most of us do not have any ability to affect these events whatsoever. I doubt there are more than a few people in the world who have that ability. I say this more from the perspective of optimistic nihilism than anything else-to worry about these events, to let them affect how you live your life (outside of staying aware and making sometimes necessary moves for safety or opportunity) is to do a disservice to yourself.

 

Will_V

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For anyone interested in the rationale behind what Russia is doing (regardless of agreeing with it or not) I think it's worth listening to Putin's speeches. Over the years (including very recently) he has talked a lot, in very great detail, about the history of Russia, the problems Russia has had with the US, the processes and outcomes of attempts between the US and Russia to reconcile, and what he wants to achieve in the future. Certainly in far greater detail than any US president is willing to talk about what the US is going through.

One would expect that with what is going on, his words would have been carefully examined by the media, if only to understand where this invasion came from and what its end goals might be. But the media is intent on portraying him as a cold, calculating killer, whose actions come out of nowhere, when the guy has spent the last several decades burning up the airwaves trying to create a popular understanding of reality as he sees it.

Like Chase said, I think this situation is unfortunate, especially for Ukraine, and probably could have been avoided. I see this as another chapter in a desperate battle between a slowly dying empire (the US) and one that is struggling to emerge from the past (Russia) who cannot stop fighting, but who are unable to checkmate eachother without checkmating themselves. Probably the best thing that can happen is that a third power rises with something that reinvigorates the path of human civilization, but frankly I don't see it anywhere, at least not yet.
 

Don Giovanni

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I get so pissed off when every media, social media tries to portray Putin as a madman psychopat, like that is the only reason why he invaded Ukraine. Surely this is not the case and the manipulation again is so obvious.

I have trouble reading the news, I just can’t trust them a single bit anymore. I listened to Ben Shapiro to get some understanding on this situation, but beyond this I’m clueless.

Are there any specific sources you get your info from @Will_V and @Chase (or anyone else)? Anything you recomend?
 

DoWhatWorks

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I get so pissed off when every media, social media tries to portray Putin as a madman psychopat, like that is the only reason why he invaded Ukraine. Surely this is not the case and the manipulation again is so obvious.

I have trouble reading the news, I just can’t trust them a single bit anymore. I listened to Ben Shapiro to get some understanding on this situation, but beyond this I’m clueless.

Are there any specific sources you get your info from @Will_V and @Chase (or anyone else)? Anything you recomend?

There's this excellent Indian News Channel on Youtube I listen to. They've got a video on this very topic here
 

ElChe

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I get so pissed off when every media, social media tries to portray Putin as a madman psychopat, like that is the only reason why he invaded Ukraine. Surely this is not the case and the manipulation again is so obvious.

I have trouble reading the news, I just can’t trust them a single bit anymore. I listened to Ben Shapiro to get some understanding on this situation, but beyond this I’m clueless.

Are there any specific sources you get your info from @Will_V and @Chase (or anyone else)? Anything you recomend?
Here's another cool video from 2015 that explains a lot of what happened in Ukraine.


He points out that reaction that people in the west have to Putin. Some people don't realize that every nation is self-interested (so you can't fully trust other nations), and just assume Putin is the next Hitler when he is just reacting rationally to an increasingly risky situation.
 

Chase

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@Train,

Yeah, any time you see the MSM holding hands in unison it’s cause to be extremely suspicious.


@climbingup,

Well, the most likely outcome of the war if you ask me is Russia splits Eastern from Western Ukraine, absorbs the pro-Russian Eastern Ukraine and instructs the pro-European Western Ukraine to remain neutral and demilitarized.

Then you’ll have the US three letter agencies get back to work gradually nurturing nationalist sentiment in Western Ukraine and eventually after some period of time it will begin re-arming… but there’ll likely be a lull of 15-20 years between the end of the war and the resumption of Western Ukraine arming itself, and it may well be the case by then that the US will have declined enough it is no longer able to dump multiple billions of dollars and shipments of expensive arms and equipment on states halfway around the world it wants to use to agitate its enemies. It’s a bit hard to predict that far out.


@Kvothe,

1. I think Chase owes me an April Fools article :p

Looks like I do ;)

I like Elon’s push to make humans multi-planetary.

Of course, there’s another side to this: imagine a multi-planetary war where instead of using nuclear weapons the opposing sides are deploying relativistic kill missiles with enough mass and acceleration to serve as planet killers.

Humans could survive a nuclear winter, most likely.

We probably wouldn’t survive getting hit with planet-killing relativistic kill missiles from our nearby planetary arch-rival.

3. While it's very interesting to discuss these large-scale geopolitical matters, it's also worth remembering that most of us do not have any ability to affect these events whatsoever. I doubt there are more than a few people in the world who have that ability. I say this more from the perspective of optimistic nihilism than anything else-to worry about these events, to let them affect how you live your life (outside of staying aware and making sometimes necessary moves for safety or opportunity) is to do a disservice to yourself.


Indeed.


@Don Giovanni,

I am almost hesitant to make any recommendations here. I think it’s best for guys to read widely and find information sources that provide reliable analyses where they end up not being surprised by how things play out.

e.g., in 2020, the MSM was telling everyone the coronavirus lockdowns would be for “only three weeks to flatten the curve”, then “just for summer”, and so on. A lot of the people I talked to who followed the MSM seemed bewildered every time things got extended, whereas the folks I know who follow alternative media were not. If you want to know which sources are more likely to be reliable, look for the ones that were telling people, “They are almost certainly going to extend these lockdowns a whole lot longer than they’re letting on” as far back as early- to mid-2020.

Beyond that, I could offer that Ron Unz’s website has an eclectic mix of alternative view points, spanning the extreme left to extreme right wing, pretty much all excluded from the mainstream media. There’s a lot of very detailed and well-sourced stuff on there, though you may not agree with all of it. The site has been de-indexed by Google and banned by the social media companies (and I’d rather not even link to it here), so that may give you some idea what the mainstream thinks of it.


@DoWhatWorks,

There's this excellent Indian News Channel on Youtube I listen to. They've got a video on this very topic here

I’m a bit surprised at that video. Maybe I haven’t been watching as much MSM as I ought to!

It started out with some interesting history, then skipped over all recent developments, any nuance on the pre-Maidan government (she actually called Janukovych Putin’s puppet! The guy was trying to have Ukraine ally with the EU until the IMF offered him one of their debt-slavery deals and he pivoted over to Russia’s far gentler deal), any examination of the US’s extensive role in the Euromaidan, any examination of the US/NATO arming Ukraine as a wedge against Russia, then devolved into, “Putin wants Ukraine because he’s an imperialist, and to win elections, and because of Russia’s now-irrelevant imperialist history holding Ukraine.”

Then all the commenters on the video are calling it very enlightening, brilliant, and refreshing :oops:

Next video: “The Cuban Missile Crisis Explained: Americans Invade the Bay of Pigs for No Reason at All Aside from JFK’s Imperialist Ambitions Plus to Help His Re-Election Bid!” lol


@ElChe,

Here's another cool video from 2015 that explains a lot of what happened in Ukraine.


He points out that reaction that people in the west have to Putin. Some people don't realize that every nation is self-interested (so you can't fully trust other nations), and just assume Putin is the next Hitler when he is just reacting rationally to an increasingly risky situation.

Yeah, that video is thorough. Just scanned through it but it seems to give all the backstory.

Everything since then is basically the inevitable outcome of the 2014 Euromaidan.

US was always going to arm Ukraine to use against Russia. Russia was always going to be forced to respond to that militarily (since it doesn’t have the capability to arm proxies and cause regime change the way the US does).

That’s been getting recommended a lot on YouTube — I keep seeing it on the sidebar.

A little surprising, considering how locked down the MSM’s had the narrative. Might be that one’s just slipped beneath the radar (to the tune of 11 million views, no less!).

Chase
 

climbingup

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Thanks Chase for the answer! I find the situation quite fascinating.

On a different matter, will Ukraine ever be back to being a popular tourist destination after the war? I just think now, people will see going to Ukraine the same way people think about going to Iraq on holiday. As a crazy idea.
 

Chase

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Thanks Chase for the answer! I find the situation quite fascinating.

On a different matter, will Ukraine ever be back to being a popular tourist destination after the war? I just think now, people will see going to Ukraine the same way people think about going to Iraq on holiday. As a crazy idea.

I will ultimately defer to @Hector Papi Castillo on that one.

He's holed up in a basement in Kiev right now providing updates on mortar blasts and the occasional gunfire burst here and there.

We'll see what kind of condition the country's in once all this is done. Kiev's encircled, and they're conducting peace talks on the Ukraine-Belarus border right now, so with any luck the situation will be resolved shortly. So far from what I'm seeing it seems like everything is more or less intact. Hector's saying he sees very little damage when he looks around outside too.

Assuming it ends soon and Russia sticks to not damaging Ukrainian infrastructure (and can keep its forces restrained from firing on the Ukrainian forces taking up positions in apartment buildings and schools), you'd expect tourism to return in a year or two once there's been a bit of time between the end of the war and the resumption of peace & stability...

Chase
 

Spyce D

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I will ultimately defer to @Hector Papi Castillo on that one.

He's holed up in a basement in Kiev right now providing updates on mortar blasts and the occasional gunfire burst here and there.

We'll see what kind of condition the country's in once all this is done. Kiev's encircled, and they're conducting peace talks on the Ukraine-Belarus border right now, so with any luck the situation will be resolved shortly. So far from what I'm seeing it seems like everything is more or less intact. Hector's saying he sees very little damage when he looks around outside too.

Assuming it ends soon and Russia sticks to not damaging Ukrainian infrastructure (and can keep its forces restrained from firing on the Ukrainian forces taking up positions in apartment buildings and schools), you'd expect tourism to return in a year or two once there's been a bit of time between the end of the war and the resumption of peace & stability...

Chase
Hope @HectorPapiCastillo is safe .
 

Egor

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Hey, anyone else think there is just too much to learn and digest, and accordingly adapt your worldview? With the European hot war, Covid, domestic politics, foreign politics, markets, etc. It is like you would have to read media and history all day to get a full picture and identify and adjust for bias. For example, who are the Chechans??

Be wary of men so eager to take up arms. That was what caused the first world war, which was very tragic, and would directly lead to WWII. The occult practitioners in the Third Reich actually summoned men from the grave to fight in the second war. You could read a history textbook, and say, well, a royal duke was assassinated and that triggered the war...maybe partly true. You could read sources that Mr. Amante might be fond of, and say, well it was the central bankers moving gold around that caused and sustained the war...again, maybe partly true; but the real cause is man's excitement for battle and primitive lust for blood.

Forgive me for my ignorance, but what the hell is Putin doing? I don't want to get dragged through the mud again for bringing up Hitler, but when Hitler's Germany invaded Poland, it was so fast and so powerful, the world had never seen anything like it. German morale and nationalism was fever hot. It looks like Putin is failing already. Antiwar protests in Russia on the second day. Stories of Russian troops dropping their arms. It looks like he is getting into a guerilla/insurgent/urban conflict that would be worse than the USSR's little debacle in Afghanistan.
 

Chase

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Hope @HectorPapiCastillo is safe .

He's okay so far. We're discussing whether it's better to remain in Kiev or try to get out.

The Russians have left a passage open for civilians to leave Kiev. But it's dangerous right now. Ukraine armed a bunch of civilians and random Ukrainian militias are shooting at other militias and using their weapons to loot stores and rob people. There was just an Israeli who got shot up trying to leave when Ukrainians at an outpost mistook him for a Chechen.

Hector's girl called a friend in Lviv and he said it's dangerous trying to board the train there. Non-Ukrainians are being pulled off trains as the Ukrainians prioritize getting Ukrainians out first. There's the question of how long you'll have to wait in the cold for a train to ride, and whether there's enough food and water to go around.

In theory he should be able to leave and not be subject to the forced conscription Ukrainian men 18-60 are getting pulled into. But in wartime nothing is 100%.

I told him he should wear his MAGA shirt on the way out (he has one of those) and talk about Trump if anyone stops him. Even if they don't like Trump, they won't mistake him for a Chechen, lol. Also suggested he livestream to the Girls Chase YouTube channel so they can hear him speaking English... he can tell them look, you're on live to 25,000 subscribers in the US and Western Europe if anyone tries messing with him... you'd think that would back off the average grunt looking for conscripts. You would think, anyway.

Chase
 

Rakkum

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Very bad discussion, creating much annoying cognitive dissonance :D Mods please delete!

Rakkum

P.S. Joking in case it wasn't obvious
 

Winston

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EU is reacting very aggressively towards Russia, basically those "sanctions" are act of war against Russia. The rhetoric is also escalating (a French minister talk about economic war). It looks like the elites want war. Therefore we will have war.

We (ie. Europeans) are fucked. WWIII is coming.
 

climbingup

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The RAF will scramble some jets to engage Russia's forces, just in time in my opinion
 
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