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Statistics 101 with BigPapa Aka BigData

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BigPapa

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Aren't you just adding another variable to your model here?

Any model can be tweaked by subtracting and adding new variables to a model.

Unless we do so, i.e. limit about model we are at risk of ending up with kitchen sink regressions.

But again, I must admit I have stepped away from quantitative social sciences long ago. I could be wrong.

Best,

I do not really understand exactly what you call a model , and maybe it is my mistake for this as I was using a little bit of " technical bla bla" . So sorry for that :)

It was more an exploratory cradle to grave type of analysis , basically looking at how many boys are being born and how the gender distribution rate evolves as time passes by , and how modern scientists argue that this happens mainly due to genetics and that more or less we are programmed genetically to behave in certain ways
 

jonjames

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I do not really understand exactly what you call a model , and maybe it is my mistake for this as I was using a little bit of " technical bla bla" . So sorry for that :)

It was more an exploratory cradle to grave type of analysis , basically looking at how many boys are being born and how the gender distribution rate evolves as time passes by , and how modern scientists argue that this happens mainly due to genetics and that more or less we are programmed generically to behave in certain ways

I understand your point. Pickup is theory. There is no data. There’s no way to collect quality data. So it will always be theory. But I think you’re spinning your tires at this point.
 

Teevster

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I do not really understand exactly what you call a model , and maybe it is my mistake for this as I was using a little bit of " technical bla bla" . So sorry for that :)

It was more an exploratory cradle to grave type of analysis , basically looking at how many boys are being born and how the gender distribution rate evolves as time passes by , and how modern scientists argue that this happens mainly due to genetics and that more or less we are programmed generically to behave in certain ways

Analytical frame-work....


Research model - the research design : I.e:

Hypothesis
Theories involved
Methods involved
Sample size and selection
Variables that will be tested (related to research questions)
Limitations

If you did economics, you probably stumbled upon this. You surely would have if you studied data analytics at Harvard.

Best,
 

Teevster

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It was more an exploratory cradle to grave type of analysis , basically looking at how many boys are being born and how the gender distribution rate evolves as time passes by , and how modern scientists argue that this happens mainly due to genetics and that more or less we are programmed genetically to behave in certain ways

I am not sure you can talk about how modern scientists argue, if you do not even know the absolute basics on how research in social science (but also economics) is being conducted.


Best,
 

Teevster

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BigPapa

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Analytical frame-work....


Research model - the research design : I.e:

Hypothesis
Theories involved
Methods involved
Sample size and selection
Variables that will be tested (related to research questions)
Limitations

If you did economics, you probably stumbled upon this. You surely would have if you studied data analytics at Harvard.

Best,

Well when you just crunching numbers and see very little variance in the ratio between how many boys are born to how many girls are born ( except for China & other more extremist countries let's say ) you only have to think about the sample size & selection ( but in this particular case it is irrelevant since you take into consideration all children born in a particular year )

Theories , Hypothesis , Limitations and other stuff are things that the scientists are trying to do as we speak. Trying to understand why the ratio is consistent across different countries & cultures , and not for example the other way around and so on. And yes there are a lot of theories , and I am quite interested in what they will pull out of their hats , even though I was quite ignorant about this type of things till recently.

But again , I fail to understand what actually you are trying to say senor , because till now we were discussing about how the gender birth rate is calculated .

I am not sure you can talk about how modern scientists argue, if you do not even know the absolute basics on how research in social science (but also economics) is being conducted.
Best,

How you came to this conclusion ? I do not think this was discussed till you started talking about it , so I think that it is a little bit too early maybe to have this kind of conclusions :)

But again , I understand that you and Carousel are friends , and btw I think he is a great guy and I am not mad at him and I know he tries to be helpful , just that I do not really understand exactly his communication style ( maybe it is a culture clash and since I have latin blood I just blow out things out of the proportion when he is just trying to be friendly ) .
 

Teevster

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Well when you just crunching numbers and see very little variance in the ratio between how many boys are born to how many girls are born ( except for China & other more extremist countries let's say ) you only have to think about the sample size & selection ( but in this particular case it is irrelevant since you take into consideration all children born in a particular year )

I did not participate in the actual discussion - only the methodological aspect - where you brought in additional variables. Whether true or not is irrelevant, since you cannot simply change the model.

Adding variables will of course affect the conclusion.

You need to stay on topic. - or stay "on model".


Theories , Hypothesis , Limitations and other stuff are things that the scientists are trying to do as we speak. Trying to understand why the ratio is consistent across different countries & cultures , and not for example the other way around and so on. And yes there are a lot of theories , and I am quite interested in what they will pull out of their hats , even though I was quite ignorant about this type of things till recently.

Scientists have always done this, not only as we speak. This has been the standard way of conducting research for over a century.

But again , I fail to understand what actually you are trying to say senor , because till now we were discussing about how the gender birth rate is calculated .

Because you senor, need to reopen your statistics books.

Either you know how quantitativ research are being conducted or you don't.


How you came to this conclusion ? I do not think this was discussed till you started talking about it , so I think that it is a little bit too early maybe to have this kind of conclusions :)

If you do not know what a number is (0-9) you do cannot know anything about anything arithmetics, same for quantitative research, if you do not know what a model is, you do not know how to conduct and interpret such researches. .

But again , I understand that you and Carousel are friends , and btw I think he is a great guy and I am not mad at him and I know he tries to be helpful , just that I do not really understand exactly his communication style ( maybe it is a culture clash and since I have latin blood I just blow out things out of the proportion when he is just trying to be friendly ) .

Good one.

Do you really swear publicly that you think he is a great guy? You know very well that you do not mean it. How about some honesty? You have every right to dislike him, but stop bullshitting.

Because at this point, the bullshit starts becoming very very smelly.

Best,
 
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Chrance

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I am a data guy , and just could not help it.

Let's say that you live in a city that has 2 million people that are evenly split between men and women. This means that you have 1 million women living in the city. Let's say that the drop dead gorgeous women represent 1 % of the female population , this means that you have 10,000 drop dead gorgeous women living in that city .

Now let's start doing some statistic inference based on the population size of 10,000 drop dead gorgeous girls . In order for you to have a significant sample size ( basically girls that you sleep with ) and then to categorize them with a quality attribute based on what they were easily approachable or not ( easy , medium , hard) , the sample size needs to be between 370 ( taking into consideration that the confidence interval is 95 % and marginal error is 5 % ) and 622 ( taking into consideration that the confidence interval is 99 % and the marginal error is 5 % ) .

After you have the sample size in question then you can extrapolate the findings to the initial population , and say that drop dead gorgeous women indeed make it easier or not for you.

I am not saying this to be a dickhead , I am just saying that the opinions are quite divided , and that I noticed a pattern with the guys that are super advanced, and that is that they do not waste too much time with red girls . Maybe they do this because they do a lot of approaches ( and ofc you get more girls that are easily approachable) , maybe it is an ego thing , maybe they already reached the required sample size and noticed that drop dead gorgeous women do not necessary make things harder for you when you approach them . Have no idea , I am quite far away from banging even 370 drop dead gorgeous woman so I can not really have an opinion about this matter, I can only speculate.

Me personally I do not really care if she is easily approachable or not , I like the hunt more than the sex itself :)

What I can say is though, since there are lots of debates on this matter, and also see how super advanced guys see things, gaming girls that are in the red spectrum quantum ( btw great article ) does not necessary means that you have a better game than someone that goes for yellow & green girls in the quantum .

I’m really confused what you’re deriving in this post. I’m really trying to understand what you’re thought process is, especially how you got to your conclusion in the last paragraph.

Statistics and probability sub fields have always given me headache - I feel like there’s a lot “gotcha” moments, like “wait what? How’d we get here?”
 

BigPapa

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I did not participate in the actual discussion - only the methodological aspect - where you brought in additional variables. Whether true or not is irrelevant, since you cannot simply change the model.

Adding variables will of course affect the conclusion.

You need to stay on topic. - or stay "on model".




Scientists have always done this, not only as we speak. This has been the standard way of conducting research for over a century.



Because you senor, need to reopen your statistics books.

Either you know how quantitativ esearch are being conducted or you don't.




If you do not know what a number is (0-9) you do cannot know anything about anything about quantitative research designs.



Good one.

Do you really swear publicly that you think he is a great guy? You know very well that you do not mean it. How about some honesty? You have every right to dislike him, but stop bullshitting.

Because at this point, the bullshit starts becoming very very smelly.

Best,

Look mate , you look like a smart guy , so let's stop this back and forth about academics because it is not really going anywhere for you . The truth is that Carousel was more a legit person to go more in depth about this , but apparently he disappeared , which is fine. I am a tough nut to crack , and it is nothing shameful about it , as other smart & powerful guys tried this and barely scratched me . So let's just shake hands and be friends and respect each other from now on. I think that I have things to learn from you & carousel , and viceversa ( either if we talk about girls , life , business whatever )

I do not have anything with him , I mean I am amused , but for sure I do not have any bad vibes against him ( people are how they are ) and always when I liked what he posted I would give him a post like , even though his attitude towards me is like this for a while now .

In addition to this , if you look at all the discussions that derailed between me and him , you will see that all the time he is the one that started it and never really roasted him back , even if I could easily do this.

As you grow older & meet a lot of people you tend to not take things personally anymore . Girls teach you a lot about having a thick skin , but man , you should see in the business world when it is about the money how people are ... :)

So, friends ?
 

Teevster

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Look mate , you look like a smart guy , so let's stop this back and forth about academics because it is not really going anywhere for you

I was not the one bringing it up... who did... I wonder.

Do you know who brought it up?

The truth is that Carousel was more a legit person to go more in depth about this , but apparently he disappeared , which is fine. I am a tough nut to crack , and it is nothing shameful about it ,


Maybe he just went to bed to actually work with big data tomorow?

It is after all late in Europe (I do not have to wake up early, since I work form home).


but apparently he disappeared , which is fine. I am a tough nut to crack , and it is nothing shameful about it , as other smart & powerful guys tried this and barely scratched me

Nice self-awareness.

One thing is being confident. Another one is being a delusional narcissist.


So let's just shake hands and be friends and respect each other from now on. I think that I have things to learn from you & carousel , and viceversa ( either if we talk about girls , life , business whatever )

Dude, your trick is getting old. This hot and cold pattern of yours is becoming VERY obvious.

I do not have anything with him , I mean I am amused , but for sure I do not have any bad vibes against him ( people are how they are ) and always when I liked what he posted I would give him a post like , even though his attitude towards me is like this for a while now .

Are you very sure about this? You really sure?

I am not.

In addition to this , if you look at all the discussions that derailed between me and him , you will see that all the time he is the one that started it and never really roasted him back , even if I could easily do this.

You have a chance to roast him here. Go ahead (grabbing my popcorn).

No offense, you were the one derailing, not him.

As you grow older

No offense, but agemogs are getting a bit old - since turns out I am not as young as you think I am.


& meet a lot of people

And how do you know anything about how many people I know? For all you know, I may know more people than you.

you tend to not take things personally anymore .


Nobody is. I just love breaking things down.

I know you get your kicks from this. It has become very obvious to many of us.



Girls teach you a lot about having a thick skin , but man , you should see in the business world when it is about the money how people are ..

Do you know anything about my experiences in the business world? I actually have an M.sc from a business school.

You make a lot of weird ass fuck assumptions that you are pulling out of your ass.

One can only wonder why you are doing that.

Huummm... I wonder... not really.

Best,
 

Carousel

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I think that I have things to learn from you & carousel , and viceversa ( either if we talk about girls , life , business whatever )

Surely you have a lot to teach about girls - you reported noob-level stickingpoints two weeks ago. Apparently you can't even talk about your vacation without getting autorejection. This is below the level of the average chode.

 
a good date brings a smile to your lips... and hers

Teevster

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Surely you have a lot to teach about girls - you reported noob-level stickingpoints two weeks ago. Apparently you can't even talk about your vacation without getting autorejection. This is below the level of the average chode.


Oh shit... and that guy felt he was able to argue against Razorjack (and partly hold strong dogmatic opinions in my thread)?

The world is truly turning upside down.

Edit:
Mr Big Data will teach us about statistics - doesn't know what a model is.
Mr Big Papa will teach people about game, when he is not even able to maintain a proper conversation with a girl

Maybe Big Papa should go back to 4chan?
 

Tim Iron

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Oh shit... and that guy felt he was able to argue against Razorjack (and partly hold strong dogmatic opinions in my thread)?

The world is truly turning upside down.

Edit:
Mr Big Data will teach us about statistics - doesn't know what a model is.
Mr Big Papa will teach people about game, when he is not even able to maintain a proper conversation with a girl

Maybe Big Papa should go back to 4chan?

:D
 

BigPapa

Space Monkey
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I was not the one bringing it up... who did... I wonder.

Do you know who brought it up?

I was making a point that only looking at your top 10 is not as relevant as looking at your whole approaches , especially since you have a lot of advanced guys that do not hassle with girls that make difficult the approach and that maybe they have their reasons for doing that :)

Maybe he just went to bed to actually work with big data tomorow?

It is after all late in Europe (I do not have to wake up early, since I work form home).

Yeah I can see that , start trolling again after your post haha

For a guy that works in data ,till now he argued only about typos & how big the sample size should be (and ignoring a lot of things while arguing) , which shows little to no knowledge when it comes to inference statistics ( this is the backbone of data , without it you simply can not work as data analyst/scientist or whatever )

But maybe this has to do with the schooling & genetics itself , as you can see bellow , romanians are quite naturally gifted ;)

540px-International_Mathematical_Olympiad_highest_team_score_bar_chart.svg.png


Nice self-awareness.

One thing is being confident. Another one is being a delusional narcissist.

Well till now you guys are just trolling , and really not trying to make a point and just say random things while lacking basic knowledge about what you are saying . More or less how a woman would do ;)

Dude, your trick is getting old. This hot and cold pattern of yours is becoming VERY obvious.

This is what people would actually call frame control

Are you very sure about this? You really sure?

I am not.

Why is that ? You can not take things personally from a guy that you do not really take serious in the first place. I mean , would you be angry on your dog for shitting on your carpet ? Let's be serious haha

Maybe I will be pissed on him for trolling when actually I will see that actually he knows what he is talking about , till then worst case scenario I will roast him back, and looks like he actually wants this .


You have a chance to roast him here. Go ahead (grabbing my popcorn).

Perfect , just don't go and cry for mami after :)

No offense, you were the one derailing, not him.

Well if you would look on what he is saying out of nowhere , people would beg to differ

No offense, but agemogs are getting a bit old - since turns out I am not as young as you think I am.

I think that more or less we are the same age , or very close . I was talking merely about me and how I became more relaxed and not that fond
of having arguments for no reason or without actually helping me in my mission or want to try to achieve .

Do not worry , I was not talking about you at all


And how do you know anything about how many people I know? For all you know, I may know more people than you.

I do not know , but again I was talking about me. I am changing the country every 1.5 years and basically have the opportunity to meet a lot of people in quite a short time .

You may or may not know more people than me , but again it was not about you or who knows more people. It was about me and how I learned to give people some slack ,
as I learned that more or less people are the same anywhere you go.

Nobody is. I just love breaking things down.

I know you get your kicks from this. It has become very obvious to many of us.

Cammone ! haha

We all have different experiences , and what works for you might not work for me and viceversa . This does not mean that I am not right , or that you are not right . Even though we use the same game framework , the game itself is very personal to each one .

As an example, even though we live in the same world and follow the same social rules it does not mean that we have the same personalities



Do you know anything about my experiences in the business world? I actually have an M.sc from a business school.
You make a lot of weird ass fuck assumptions that you are pulling out of your ass.

One can only wonder why you are doing that.

Huummm... I wonder... not really.

I know enough that only your business school education is not enough to talk about this kind of advanced topics about statistics.

The curriculum in business schools when it comes to statistics teaches only the "classical statistics school" and not the bayesian one . I also know that if you take classes about market research mainly you know how to build questionnaires and how to interpret that data from those questionnaires.

Not enough knowledge though to talk about models & other more advanced stuff . Another tell sign is that you do not make any difference between exploratory analysis and hypothesis testing.

But it is fine , modern society is built on specialization and division of labor + social networking , thus having the best of everything without taking you a lifetime to reach that level.

I do not really want to learn a lot of things , like crafting my own shoes or tailor my own clothes etc etc , but this does not mean that I go and tell this guys that they do not know what they are talking about.

You also say that you are quite versed when it comes to the business world and stuff like that , but again maybe you are emotional when you see your friend in trouble , but what you say & view things for sure will not work in the business world :)

Surely you have a lot to teach about girls - you reported noob-level stickingpoints two weeks ago. Apparently you can't even talk about your vacation without getting autorejection. This is below the level of the average chode.


What a time to be alive , the real slim shaddy is back !

Well I think that auto rejection happens to the best of us , as RJ knew exactly what I was talking based on his own personal experience . Since RJ is a super skilled guy ( and respect him ) I think that is safe to say that this happens when you have issues with attainability ( like in my case is something that I started experiencing quite recently ) .

But again in that thread you started trolling for no reason ( even implying that RJ talks shit) . I get it you think that you are smart and makes you feel like shit that you are not getting the money and feel super angry when you see others pulling this . I do not know your situation , but for sure it might have to do with this passive aggressive womanly attitude that you have .

Like I said , if you go on this road with trying to roast me , then be prepared to roast you back .

I am not a farm boy like you are , I come straight of the hood . You know how it is , roasting in the hood is like the 2nd nature of people ;)

Oh shit... and that guy felt he was able to argue against Razorjack (and partly hold strong dogmatic opinions in my thread)?

The world is truly turning upside down.

Edit:
Mr Big Data will teach us about statistics - doesn't know what a model is.
Mr Big Papa will teach people about game, when he is not even able to maintain a proper conversation with a girl

Maybe Big Papa should go back to 4chan?

I did not argue with RJ & neither with you , and neither try to roast you as you try with this high school replies :)
 

Carousel

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But again in that thread you started trolling for no reason ( even implying that RJ talks shit)

So I have implied RJ talks shit or trolled RJ? Everybody can view that thread and see that I didn't. He even liked some of my posts there.
You are one of the least skilled liars I have encountered here.

I get it you think that you are smart and makes you feel like shit that you are not getting the money and feel super angry when you see others pulling this . I do not know your situation , but for sure it might have to do with this passive aggressive womanly attitude that you have .

If you actually worked in software/datascience, you would surely know that this is a well-paid job ;) More proof you are a fake.

Like I said , if you go on this road with trying to roast me , then be prepared to roast you back .

 

BigPapa

Space Monkey
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Also talking with you 2 guys also makes me understand exactly what is in the heart of this girls that auto reject . Like really understand , and just makes me feel really bad for making them feel this way . For sure I will learn a lot from this retarded back and forth . Thank you guys !

Also , let's agree to stop this thread here till you guys don't cross the line and become extremely pathetic .

You are already aggressive , defensive , not with a great frame control and for sure with some inner game problems . I can help you guys in this matter , been through a lot of shit in my life ;)
 

BigPapa

Space Monkey
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So I have implied RJ talks shit or trolled RJ? Everybody can view that thread and see that I didn't. He even liked some of my posts there.
You are one of the least skilled liars I have encountered here.



If you actually worked in software/datascience, you would surely know that this is a well-paid job ;) More proof you are a fake.




Amigo you have serious anger issues :)

You are saying that work in data science but lack basic understanding of the classical school of statistics . Dunno if this makes you the liar or not ( I just do not care) , but like I said do not be more pathetic than you are right now .

Get a life a bro !
 

Carousel

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For a guy that works in data ,till now he argued only about typos & how big the sample size should be (and ignoring a lot of things while arguing) , which shows little to no knowledge when it comes to inference statistics ( this is the backbone of data , without it you simply can not work as data analyst/scientist or whatever )

But maybe this has to do with the schooling & genetics itself , as you can see bellow , romanians are quite naturally gifted ;)

And surely, somebody who knows statistics will resort to the fallacy that because a population is good or bad at something, this can be used to deduce the competence level of individual members of that population. Even the average Joe knows that there are competent and incompetent people in every country. You are hilarious!;)
 

BigPapa

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And surely, somebody who knows statistics will resort to the fallacy that because a population is good or bad at something, this can be used to deduce the competence level of individual members of that population. Even the average Joe knows that there are competent and incompetent people in every country. You are hilarious!;)

Who is agreeing with you ? You and your friends ahahahahahah

Well the discussion about Velasco & Bachus ( both guys with advanced game ) , so I think it is safe to say that we were talking about advanced game , and not some average Joe with intermediate or little to no game :)

But we are making steps ,that is good . You are coming clean that you do not know that much about data science, and hence can not work as a data scientist as you were saying . Again , I am not judging you , I guess when you take your treatment for autism you are quite a really nice fella ;)

Can you please share with the rest of the guys here , how a field report looks like when you are winging with teev ?

The way I imagine it ( again not knowing you guys ) is that it looks a lot like Rainman , where teev is the handsome charismatic guy and you are the guy "counting the cards" and then gets pissed when he is not getting laid .

This is just common sense based on your behavior , for sure your behavior is not pussy worthy as you have big holes in your fundamentals & inner game .

Let's agree to end this discussion , because seriously it becomes very painful for you and people have to respect your rank otherwise anarchy will start on the forum , and that is just bad for everyone here ;)
 
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