Anyone Trading Crypto?

themino

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
55
I don't think the bull market is off. But I'm not sure there is enough data to suggest pullbacks are over. So I wondered what your analysis was that makes you say that?
if we are in a clear uptrend I don’t try to time the pullback because then I miss the fat green daily candles. I look out for a break of clear levels of resistance to confirm a change in trend (BTC 40k) then no resistance till 50k. I also knew the market was bearish (funding rates were negative) but we didn’t drop past 29k tested 3 times, and OI wasn’t very high so there wasn’t much leverage. this means the down trend was dying out. once shorts got liquidated on the big green candle to 35k, sentiment started to change, less fear. big candles = strong bull trend to counter the weakening bear trend. i started to strap up for the ride.

as to why the uptrend isn’t over, less leverage in the system, haven’t reached peak greed/ euphoria. the last BTC bull peaks never looked like the current market imo. China can’t dump on us this time. Gov printing with infrastructure bull, whales have still been accumulating according to on chain metrics during the dip. All weak hands already sold and gave into fear
 
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Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
Joined
Jun 13, 2016
Messages
415
SEND IT!!! 60k BTC
THEY THOUGHT IT WAS OVER
I wonder if people will say it's a bear market with the current dip? I think it might go lower still, but still not a bear market.
Perhaps the second leg of the bull market is not confirmed yet, but price not gone far enough south to call it a bear market.

How is everyones trading going?
This current dip was to be expcted due to the bearish divergence. I even took a screenshot of ETHUSD a few days ago, showing this for my own notes, and have attached it. I thought maybe more data was needed. Either way, price did go south. See how it was at about 4,000 and then compare that with the second screenshot how it just went south down to 3,000.

Screenshot a few days ago




Then, bearish divergence played out and price went south see below drop from 4,000



Notice how sp500 also fell a bit on the same day, and yeah, crypto went with it! Perhaps sp500 falls more, and crypto does as well. There looks like there might be bearish divergence on the sp500 daily timeframe still. However, if who is it, the fed? keeps buying up the sp500, then that might prevent that drop.


I've put some Naturalgas shorts orders on, we have price stretched from 10EMA on 4hr time frame and look at the divergence.

Here's a screenshot showing bearish divergence on Naturalgas



The other thing with Naturalgas, we are currently gone up since August of about 1.2 in the price, and in three recent times this happened near end of year, price fell back by 0.8 in the price. So I may keep these shorts on longer, or close some at 38fib 4hr timeframe miniswing[which starts at the opposing coloured bear/bull bar for this pullback system of mine] but keep rest on or something, due to this other homework I've done looking at natural gas recently.

Even forgetting my pullbacks system, the dailytime frame Naturalgas, price is at the top of a rising wedge, which those patterns tend to be bearish. Price has not closed above it[atlhough it might, have to wait and see] so if you just played the wedge, eg sell at resistance, sell high, you could look at it that way too. Don't forget the bearish divergence! Of course, there are no guarantees about trading ideas.
 
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Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
Joined
Jun 13, 2016
Messages
415
I've put some shorts on copper xcuusd over the last few hours. On the 4hr timeframe, price has become stretched above 10EMA red line. Notice the vertical blue line, how, price became the length of one full vertical blue line, so now price has become stretched. Then it just became more and more stretched, while the 10EMA stayed down there, so I put more orders on as it went up since it had not pulled back.

I expect a pullback to the 38fib minimum, but far more likely the 618fib, in a most likely a maximum of 5x trading days.
If it goes up more next week before a pullback, I'd lengthen the fibonacci end point as price goes up. I'd still most likely expect a 618pullback within 5 trading days of today. Nothing is guaranteed.

Notice how I've drawn the fib level start point; from the low between where price got stretched and the last opposite coloured bar. So its the 618fib that I've drawn on the chart, that's the context of my expectation of where price is likely to go, the 435 area at this stage.

 
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Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
Joined
Jun 13, 2016
Messages
415
Update on that trade that I took with Copper.

Price has come down to that 618fib level, around 435area, like I thought it would based on probability.

I closed most of my trades. Left two lower volume trades on, but it bounced up, so closed them as well. Overall, well in the green pip zone[eg very profitable, not anywhere near a loss].

Chart attached.
 
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themino

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
55
People still think its a bear as of today. funding still negative.
UY1sPpH.png

Also I admit my mistake on my earlier call on the breakout of 50k. longs got squeezed. including me. But that's behind us, we still go up.
 
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Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
Joined
Jun 13, 2016
Messages
415
People still think its a bear as of today. funding still negative.
Hi,

I haven't looked into too much with funding and stuff. But, you mentioned was it China can't dump on the market this time?
I saw something about how its not just Evergrande that is losing stock perecentage, its like the top 10 property developer companies in China that are all losing stock value and they have debts? The reason this affects outside China is because they invested in many countries as well. That's the domino effect if they keep losing stock price?

That shows their property developer losing stock price or am I misunderstanding? and he says in that tweet about yeah, losing big money would have flow on effect like in Feb 2020. But I haven't looked into this but wondered if you have. This might tie in with below.

Short term, the sp500 has closed below that trendline, its looking like it might be risk off algos and emotions at least short term. Silver has gone down as well. Risk off means cryptos likely go down.

Also, the total crypto market cap has closed on the 12hr timeframe below 2.14area, if it stays below there end of the day, it might send it lower next week. Or, could close back above it next week, and be a false breakout. But the latter, based on the other stuff might be less probable.
Maybe if bitcoin got back above 53k? I'm just very hesitant add to any crypto longs at the moment.

The other thing, which I haven't looked into much, but something baout USDX might be headed up, and that might send crypto south as well? But I haven't cross checked the charts on that one.


The last few days I've taken more Copper trades but didn't want to spam the thread. Anyway, its become stretched again right now from the 10EMA red squiggly line which is at about 430.1 in the screenshot below. I have one long/buy order on at the moment. I have buy limit orders waiting if it goes lower before getting a pullback. I start with lower volume, and gradually increase volume on the orders as price becomes more stretched.

Depending on what price does, most likely a 618fib pullback to be expected. 618fib is currently about 431.8 area.
But, if price goes down more before pulling back, I would extend the fib lower, eg so the "0" point ends up where ever the swing low ends up being, and then the 618fib area would have a differnet price level to 431.8, but would still be the 618fib.

I've drawn some lines on the chart.
The green lines are a descending channel, perhaps we bounce off channel support?
The red lines are a very slight ascending channel.
But, perhaps the channels don't have enough touches, plus its the 4hr time frame[less volume compared to daily, so less reliable]

Maybe the very slight ascending channel is an upward sloping flag battern, so price might go lower.
Either way, if it does, that's fine, I will buy more and await the pullback.

ajkAf4R.png
 
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themino

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
55
Hi,

I haven't looked into too much with funding and stuff. But, you mentioned was it China can't dump on the market this time?
I saw something about how its not just Evergrande that is losing stock perecentage, its like the top 10 property developer companies in China that are all losing stock value and they have debts? The reason this affects outside China is because they invested in many countries as well. That's the domino effect if they keep losing stock price?

That shows their property developer losing stock price or am I misunderstanding? and he says in that tweet about yeah, losing big money would have flow on effect like in Feb 2020. But I haven't looked into this but wondered if you have. This might tie in with below.

Short term, the sp500 has closed below that trendline, its looking like it might be risk off algos and emotions at least short term. Silver has gone down as well. Risk off means cryptos likely go down.

Also, the total crypto market cap has closed on the 12hr timeframe below 2.14area, if it stays below there end of the day, it might send it lower next week. Or, could close back above it next week, and be a false breakout. But the latter, based on the other stuff might be less probable.
Maybe if bitcoin got back above 53k? I'm just very hesitant add to any crypto longs at the moment.

The other thing, which I haven't looked into much, but something baout USDX might be headed up, and that might send crypto south as well? But I haven't cross checked the charts on that one.


The last few days I've taken more Copper trades but didn't want to spam the thread. Anyway, its become stretched again right now from the 10EMA red squiggly line which is at about 430.1 in the screenshot below. I have one long/buy order on at the moment. I have buy limit orders waiting if it goes lower before getting a pullback. I start with lower volume, and gradually increase volume on the orders as price becomes more stretched.

Depending on what price does, most likely a 618fib pullback to be expected. 618fib is currently about 431.8 area.
But, if price goes down more before pulling back, I would extend the fib lower, eg so the "0" point ends up where ever the swing low ends up being, and then the 618fib area would have a differnet price level to 431.8, but would still be the 618fib.

I've drawn some lines on the chart.
The green lines are a descending channel, perhaps we bounce off channel support?
The red lines are a very slight ascending channel.
But, perhaps the channels don't have enough touches, plus its the 4hr time frame[less volume compared to daily, so less reliable]

Maybe the very slight ascending channel is an upward sloping flag battern, so price might go lower.
Either way, if it does, that's fine, I will buy more and await the pullback.

ajkAf4R.png
I don't know what will happen with Evergrande or if it will effect the broader market. China will intervene, since it is so big, but they might just censor discussion/ protest and let the company implode. Right now the outcome is uncertain so we should just follow the issue. I follow this guys market newsletter who provided an analyses of Ever grand and should provide further insight as information arises.


btw we broke the descending channel
we go up
 

themino

Space Monkey
space monkey
Joined
Feb 24, 2019
Messages
55
when funding is negative shorts are paying a fee hourly to keep short positions open on BTC perpetuals. Also means there are more shorts than longs
 
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