Anyone Trading Crypto?

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
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Jun 13, 2016
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534
CADJPY update.

The long I had on did come back to 618fib area, so closed for profit. I also have some shorts on now, details and charts below for my opinion on what the CADJPY might do.


Here's the monthly chart. See that giant monthly wedge [in orange] I mentioned previously.

c6i1qFJ.png



Here's the weekly chart showing the rising wedge [in navy blue]

vhEjoeR.png



Here's the daily chart showing the daily wedge I previously mentioned [in green]

d2lhp6i.png



Here's the 4hr chart, showing how price became stretched from the 10EMA by the length of the blue bar.

e5pYuQ9.png


I have some shorts on now at 91.5 area, 91.9 area and 92.1 area.
Current target, provided CADJPY don't make a HH before then, would be 50fib area of 91.4 and likely the 618fib area of 91.2
If we go and make a HH, I will be leaving a gap before putting more shorts on, eg maybe no more shorts until 93.4 area. CADJPY has just broken out of a daily wedge, so unless we go back below that, maybe price goes significantly higher.

If CADJPY close back below the green line on the daily closing basis, that would be a false breakout and maybe price heads south back to the green wedge support line, and below that maybe navy blue wedge support. The second target is actually right on a 'retest' of that daily wedge resistance as new support. Have to see if price bounces, or closes below it. See how quickly it gets down there[if stretched on 4hrs, I might put some longs on].
 
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MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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Sold off my SOXL for profit today. Bought two weeks ago around 32.00 sold off at 35 I can’t read the market at the moment.

I can’t find any accurate information on what went down in China today but I did notice the Yang started to finally drop after being at forty fuckin dollars. This is the weirdest market ever.
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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Sold off my SOXL for profit today. Bought two weeks ago around 32.00 sold off at 35 I can’t read the market at the moment.

I can’t find any accurate information on what went down in China today but I did notice the Yang started to finally drop after being at forty fuckin dollars. This is the weirdest market ever.
Hey,

I think the day that that happened there was an FOMC Federal funds rate announcement and then after that there was an FOMC press conference.
The rate decision was March 17th, 2:00pm EST, and the press conference was at 2:30pm EST
This the calender shows the date. Happens 8 times per year.

I haven't cross checked that to see if it affects the Yang or not, but maybe the short term and/or long term reaction was to the rate decision and/or what the fed was saying in the conference and how markets might react to that longer term.
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
Tool-Bearing Hominid
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Those ETHUSD turned into winners and closed for overall profit. We did get a small pullback to the 3250area I think it was, then it went up a litte.... is it going to bounce or pullback more? Maybe I closed too soon? Or maybe not.

Either way, I have added a bunch of DOGEUSD to what I already had, partly based on whats talked about here and also DXY still bearish bias on that too which would likely help cryptos. That article/video link is from last week so price may have moved a bit since then.

USDT.D tether dominance.... if it closes below 3.82area there's also a trendline around the 2.95area somewhere around there which I think could add support, plus the MACD on daily has abit of an up signal. So if market cap USD tether dominance bounces from here, or down lower at the 2.95 support area, cryptos might fall a bit.

CADJPY has gotten quite stretched. We did get a pullaback but not close enough to the 50fib that I would say it hit the target. Unless this one of the exceptions. If we don't make a HH, current 50fib target for me is 95.2 area.

q0IIDHL.png
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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Those ETHUSD turned into winners and closed for overall profit. We did get a small pullback to the 3250area I think it was, then it went up a litte.... is it going to bounce or pullback more? Maybe I closed too soon? Or maybe not.

Either way, I have added a bunch of DOGEUSD to what I already had, partly based on whats talked about here and also DXY still bearish bias on that too which would likely help cryptos. That article/video link is from last week so price may have moved a bit since then.

USDT.D tether dominance.... if it closes below 3.82area there's also a trendline around the 2.95area somewhere around there which I think could add support, plus the MACD on daily has abit of an up signal. So if market cap USD tether dominance bounces from here, or down lower at the 2.95 support area, cryptos might fall a bit.

CADJPY has gotten quite stretched. We did get a pullaback but not close enough to the 50fib that I would say it hit the target. Unless this one of the exceptions. If we don't make a HH, current 50fib target for me is 95.2 area.

q0IIDHL.png

Have you seen the ginormous decline in the Yen in the last bit? What in the hell the economy is in disaster mode.

I’ve been consistently on the bear market for the last bit, YANG I’ve been in at 16.00 and I think it’ll hit back up to 24.00 very easily in the next couple of days.

I bought some SOXL at 25.00 and sold off at 27.00. I have very little faith in the market atm so I’m getting ready to position myself when the time is right into SOXS.

Cryptowise I’m only holding link,bat, trx and monero and I’ve locked most into a 30% reward stake.

These are some troubling times. Everything in my part of the world is super speeding towards going to shit.

TICKERS I’m keeping my eye on
NAIL
CWEB
YANG
SOXL/SOXS
HIBL/HIBS
TMV
RIOT
 
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CassieDon

Space Monkey
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Hopefully you guys are keeping on top of your macro, micros (what I define fundamentals in the lower scale) alongside your technicals while doing this. Institutions still tend to outperform retail traders/investors, and cypto spreads tend to be huge.
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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Hopefully you guys are keeping on top of your macro, micros (what I define fundamentals in the lower scale) alongside your technicals while doing this. Institutions still tend to outperform retail traders/investors, and cypto spreads tend to be huge.

Im doubtful institutional investors are ahead of me atm. Could be wrong.

Im holding CWEB atm I’m thinking China comes out of lockdown this May and lowers interest rate. I’m at 4.70 in atm

Besides that looking at the run on Luna was interesting but I’m still very comfy at where crypto is currently at. I’m surprised it has had such a correlation to the American market but my suspicion is that since Russia and China are the majority holders of crypto that there fiat options are currently giving better rewards then the crypto market.

haven’t been able to get an accurate read but I heard the interest rate in Russia is 18%
 

CassieDon

Space Monkey
space monkey
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Im doubtful institutional investors are ahead of me atm. Could be wrong.

Im holding CWEB atm I’m thinking China comes out of lockdown this May and lowers interest rate. I’m at 4.70 in atm

Besides that looking at the run on Luna was interesting but I’m still very comfy at where crypto is currently at. I’m surprised it has had such a correlation to the American market but my suspicion is that since Russia and China are the majority holders of crypto that there fiat options are currently giving better rewards then the crypto market.

haven’t been able to get an accurate read but I heard the interest rate in Russia is 18%

In my part time role, I had a few customers wonder this too. However, when you review some stats released by funds that have allocated part of their capital in crypto and cross reference it with retail investors/retail traders, the difference is astonishing. However, big institutions have more resources and manpower than retail players.

It also depends on the crypto you are holding, to be fair. Re China, it can be hard to call depending on the information.
My suggestions would be anything close to China/Asia, so news sources such as SCMP, Nikkei, and The Diplomat come to mind. Potentially the Asia sections of news sites of the FT, perhaps. Consider Chinese State media, but cross reference them bc in my experience they will bury any bad news, since the state controls them.

To answer your question for why the American market influences crypto, it is because the USD is the reserve currency; it is used in international trade, to purchase commodities and such. When people think of how much conventional money they can purchase crypto for, they think USD. Russia and China are interesting re crypto because they (especially China in recent times) expressed dislike towards it because they cannot control it with monetary policy.

Re Russia, I would put that in context with the current climate. They are doing this to help strengthen the RUB considering the nosedive it took since the beginning of the war. Typical monetary policy theory suggests that higher rates = stronger currency which is what Russia is trying to achieve imo.
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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My longer term bias for a few things has changed. The DXY didn't top out at monthly resistance
-decade long ascending trendline at about 99.5, dxy now above that, its a 'false breakout' so long term might be headed higher
-decade long descending trendline at 98.3 or 101.2 area depending how you draw it, monthly close above that as well.
DXY closed above those trend lines.
Someone elsewhere mentioned DXY to 143? I'm not sure why though, can't see anything at a quick look at 143 area.
Maybe 118 if you take the current range there are some previous highs around 120.

Shorter term the sp500 has a false breakout of descending channel support, possible small/medium relief rally for sp500, maybe 4300?, and it might take some cryptos with it since btc has been following sp500 very closely recently.
But, the BTC.D [btc dominance] is breaking out to the upside so that might mean BTC would outperform ALTS , or ALTS might not perform as well as BTC.

7x straight weeks of red bitcoin. Previously BTC had never gone 6weeks in a row of closing the week lower than it started.
 
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DonGately

Cro-Magnon Man
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Two of the largest crypto trading platforms froze BTC withdrawals in the past 24 hours. Stay safe out there.
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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S&p500 I have some longs on, but maybe it goes lower before a rally. Would look to add more longs if it does lower, maybe it goes to 3550, 3400, 3240 areas first. Shall see.

On linear view, BTC has a descending channel within a descending channel.
im4DnU7.png


On log scale view, BTC has closed below descending channel.
HbVx2cL.png
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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S&p500 I have some longs on, but maybe it goes lower before a rally. Would look to add more longs if it does lower, maybe it goes to 3550, 3400, 3240 areas first. Shall see.

On linear view, BTC has a descending channel within a descending channel.
im4DnU7.png


On log scale view, BTC has closed below descending channel.
HbVx2cL.png

S&P is going to tumble way further. This is the prelude.

I often use real life as my litmus test for how the market is doing, quite a few of these restaurants and bars were very quiet in busy areas. Even though it should’ve been a stellar weekend.

I use SPXL and SPXS for the S&P I can easily see SPXL hit down to forty. I see the final interest rate for the fed being 6.8%

No major investments atm I’m in cash. I’m keeping a very close tab on the Chinese stock market, CWEB, YINN have been on a tear since China got out of lockdowns but I feel further repercussions will continue to unfold due to property prices in those districts tumbling.
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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Sp500 longs hit the target. Closed them near the end of the friday session last week. Have some shorts on. Maybe we go higher first though.

S&P is going to tumble way further. This is the prelude.
How low do you think the s&p 500 would go? I'm thinking it might drop 45+%, comparing with other things like
-1973 swing high to 1974 swing low, about 50%.
-2000 swing high to 2002 swing low, about 50%.
-2007 swing high to 2008 swing low, about 57%.
-2022 swing high to ???? swing low, about 50%+

So far, the lowest point we are about 24% off of the current swing high at the start of the year/end of last year.
I did see a post on twitter Justin Bennett that maybe its worse market conditions than 2008. 2008 had much higher interest rates, and a much lower fed balance sheet.

If it did drop 50% from the swing high start of 2022,that puts 2400price for s&p swing low.
If it dropped 57% thats about 2000pts level. The 50fib from 2009 swing low to 2022 swing high, the 50fib(on log scale) is about 1800....

There's also a trendline that goes back to 1932... you have to use a line chart to make it look proper if I'm understanding, and it was twitter GertvanLagen that I got it from. I've attached this particular line on the chart below. If price drops towards that, that puts it at about 1800 level if it hit that low in June of 2023. That level would be lower if it hit it before then.

7tIxxGZ.png



A drop to 1800area would be about 62% drop from the 2022 swing high. A slightly worse drop compared with 2007-2009 swing.
Perhaps some sort of bounce would be expected there, and that could be the low if it gets there. How low do you think it would go?
 

Rain

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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If sp500 keeps following 2008, its likely it will take crypto lower with it.

I've been shorting sp500 on the way up, I believe price got stretched from the 10EMA on the daily timeframe, and we were likely to get a pullback. Currently it is pulling back. There's also some other macro factors to be bearish medium/long term on sp500/stocks, described in the video below. If we can get below 4200 4100 area and stay below it , maybe we go much lower.

If we keep doing something similar to 2008, much lower might be happening. Of course, maybe we won't do that, maybe sp500 bounces from 4100 area and it forms a higher low. Here's why it looks like 2008 so far(copy and paste the bars from 2008 crash, to now):

5hHfYp9.png



Here's the source for that, and here's a 5min video explaining it.


Also, the vix. It's gapped up quite a bit. If it closes back inside that orange wedge support, that would be a false breakout, meaning vix likely to go way up, and sp500 likely to go way down, if vix can stay inside of it.
JukMZJu.png




I have a short on copper as well. One entering based on the sort of lower high, and then a second one on a 4hrs close below the orange ascending channel support. I then closed one of my shorts for a small loss when price closed back inside that orange ascending channel.

If copper can get a maybe a 4hrs close back inside that dark blue descending channel then I will look to add another short to it.
The horizontal support/resistance at 3.5 on the daily timeframe might also be an area to watch. I might need to wait for price down there too before I put that short back on.


1pELAkl.png


XNpZ2II.png



US Natural Gas. If we can get maybe a 4hr close above 9.4area I might put a long on. US winter coming up[demand], NG storeage not sure if its looking the best long term[lack of supply], maintenance on Nord stream 1 end of this month for 3x days. I'm aware that shouldn't affect US NG, yet this commentator reckon it does. A different article reckons high EU NG prices drives up demand for cheaper US NG imports if I'm understanding correctly. That Nord stream 1 maintenance is August 31st for 3days until September 2nd. So about a week away. US NG price has been hanging aroud that 9.4 area a lot longer than it did a few weeks ago, usually it sells off.
 
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Ree

Tool-Bearing Hominid
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i get paid in tether,I live in east africa and when working with international clients i found getting paid in crypro is way faster than a wire transfer
 

MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla

Modern Human
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If sp500 keeps following 2008, its likely it will take crypto lower with it.

I've been shorting sp500 on the way up, I believe price got stretched from the 10EMA on the daily timeframe, and we were likely to get a pullback. Currently it is pulling back. There's also some other macro factors to be bearish medium/long term on sp500/stocks, described in the video below. If we can get below 4200 4100 area and stay below it , maybe we go much lower.

If we keep doing something similar to 2008, much lower might be happening. Of course, maybe we won't do that, maybe sp500 bounces from 4100 area and it forms a higher low. Here's why it looks like 2008 so far(copy and paste the bars from 2008 crash, to now):

5hHfYp9.png



Here's the source for that, and here's a 5min video explaining it.


Also, the vix. It's gapped up quite a bit. If it closes back inside that orange wedge support, that would be a false breakout, meaning vix likely to go way up, and sp500 likely to go way down, if vix can stay inside of it.
JukMZJu.png




I have a short on copper as well. One entering based on the sort of lower high, and then a second one on a 4hrs close below the orange ascending channel support. I then closed one of my shorts for a small loss when price closed back inside that orange ascending channel.

If copper can get a maybe a 4hrs close back inside that dark blue descending channel then I will look to add another short to it.
The horizontal support/resistance at 3.5 on the daily timeframe might also be an area to watch. I might need to wait for price down there too before I put that short back on.


1pELAkl.png


XNpZ2II.png



US Natural Gas. If we can get maybe a 4hr close above 9.4area I might put a long on. US winter coming up[demand], NG storeage not sure if its looking the best long term[lack of supply], maintenance on Nord stream 1 end of this month for 3x days. I'm aware that shouldn't affect US NG, yet this commentator reckon it does. A different article reckons high EU NG prices drives up demand for cheaper US NG imports if I'm understanding correctly. That Nord stream 1 maintenance is August 31st for 3days until September 2nd. So about a week away. US NG price has been hanging aroud that 9.4 area a lot longer than it did a few weeks ago, usually it sells off.

Yeah I’ve got buys in at HIBS, YANG and SPXS at the moment. I think we are seeing way larger hikes then ever.

I’m also exchanging most of my foreign currencies into Kronors and USD.
 
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