Anyone Trading Crypto?

[Rain]

Last few days have added some natural gas shorts. My trading idea I'm still expecting price to go to the 3.2 area or lower in the next few months.

Crytpo I still think bullish. Cup and handle has formed on ETHUSD. Plus the 2020 March trendline still intact.
TOTAL crypto total market cap did make an ATH in November. Its also still above March 2020 trendline. That said can't say I'm keen on the bearish divergence, but until it plays out, still bullish. Looking at the weekly timeframe and at 2017, it still made HH despite the bearish divergence ,so we might get another HH before divergence happens.

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

Last few days have added some natural gas shorts. My trading idea I'm still expecting price to go to the 3.2 area or lower in the next few months.

Crytpo I still think bullish. Cup and handle has formed on ETHUSD. Plus the 2020 March trendline still intact.
TOTAL crypto total market cap did make an ATH in November. Its also still above March 2020 trendline. That said can't say I'm keen on the bearish divergence, but until it plays out, still bullish. Looking at the weekly timeframe and at 2017, it still made HH despite the bearish divergence ,so we might get another HH before divergence happens.

Yeah I stept out of the market thinking Biden’s agenda wouldn’t pass and it did.

Bought SOXS because I am an absolute bear on PHLX and so far I’m up a couple grand but still haven’t sold. I think it’ll hit somewhere not sure where.

Crypto wise BAT coin as I thought has sky rocketed. Now if only HBAR catches on, still holding my LINK, eth, monero got it locked in for 7% interest.

don’t at all regret selling my Bitcoin

 

[Rain]

Natural gas there has a gap at the 4.09 level, I have a big short order waiting there. It may go up there maybe 4.2 or tad higher in the next few days.
There is an even larger gap up at 5.3area but I highly doubt price gets back up there anytime soon, probably not even this holiday cycle. No guarantees of course. Longer term target for me still 3.2 perhaps lower.

Current trade on CADJPY, it has gotten stretched significantly from the 10 exponential moving average on the 4hrs timeframe. I've gone short at 89.6 and 90.2 areas. If it does not go higher than 90.3[current high of current swing] area on the 4hr time frame, target would be about 88.7area, the 618fib. If it does go higher, I will extend the fib to the next high point[which would make the 618fib target price a bit higher], and add more shorts with increasing volume depending how high price gets. Since the last other coloured bar[red in this case] is all the way down at the swing low, thats where the fib started from in this trade idea.

 

[CassieDon]

IMO if you're going to look at CADJPY, you're going to have to look at oil since it is effectively the FX way of looking at oil, as oil stocks are the equity way of looking at oil. Though with CADJPY, should watch out for the BOJ Monetary Policy statement this week.

For crypto in general, you should watch out for the FOMC and ECB statements too, since that potentially can drive money flow into, or out of crypto.

 

[Rain]

CADJPY Trade idea played out nicely. Price went down to the 618fib level of 88.7area as I thought it probably would, its currently beyond that at 88.2 area. I decided to let it run, sometimes you can get more than the original target. If it goes back up I will think about closing.

 

[MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla]

Yeah my SOXS shares paid off.

Im getting pissed that crypto essentially is following the American stock market. It is super fucking annoying.

Aiming for HIBL around the sixty mark, bought in for SPCE at 14.00 hoping for 17.00

 

[Rain]

Yeah my SOXS shares paid off.

Im getting pissed that crypto essentially is following the American stock market. It is super fucking annoying.

Good to hear you made the right call on your trade idea, well done

With crypto do you mean crypto is having similar price pattern to the sp500?
Are you , or were you, doing crypto more long term holds or more day by day trading?

We might be in for an extended bull market cycle with crypto. Every bull market cycle since BTC started has been longer than the previous one. Of course, there are no guarantees. On twitter was something about the last two cycles, they hit a top between the 2.272 and 2.414 fibonacci extension levels. We are currently not anywhere near the 2.272 or 2.414 fib extension of the last bear market pullback. So if that were to happen again, then crypto has much more room to run to the upside.

 

[Rain]

CADJPY Trade idea played out nicely. Price went down to the 618fib level of 88.7area as I thought it probably would, its currently beyond that at 88.2 area. I decided to let it run, sometimes you can get more than the original target. If it goes back up I will think about closing.

The short I had at 89.6 I closed on the 16th January, when price was at 88.8 area. It went below the target, then back above it and I thought yeah lets lock some profit in, in case we don't get that any bonus beyond target.
For some reason I thought I had already posted about closing that one, but anyway friendly reminder sometimes our memories aren't the best. Maybe I thought about editing my quoted post above or making a second reply, then didn't get around to it or changed mind, yet my memory , so like maybe thats an example of a like fasley created memory? Anyways moving back on topic lol.

The short I had at 90.2 , had closed it on the 22nd January last week, when price was at the 88.5 area.

I think there's a chance cryptos go lower temporarily. Not guaranteed, but the BTC wick has not been filled. It in most of 2021, other big lower wicks like that, usually/all got filled. Thats the wick on the 4th december, down at about 42area.

 

[Rain]

To keep things maybe a bit simpler, I might only add one or two orders per second blue bar onwards instead of 4 orders per second blue bar onwards that I was originaly doing.

CADJPY, 4hrs timeframe got stretched again end of last week. Short on at about 90.9 area. Price target is 90.6 area where the 618fib is how I've drawn it here[the last opposing coloured bar the low there is where I start the fib]. I think there's a chance go further lower maybe to 90.0area to test that as new support based on the daily/weekly.

Longer term, we do have a weekly rising wedge[longer term potentially bearish] and if drop from here, a potential head and shoulders topping pattern, but that's unconfirmed.
I would have no problem if price just went up without going to that 90.6area first, and made a HH on price, but made a LL on the RSI weekly timeframe, making bearish divergence. This would also mean I'd need to extend that fib end point to whatever the new high ends up being on the 4hrs time frame, and that would shift the target, hence why I'd add another short if it goes up another blue bar length for example. If price make the end of 3blue bars, a third short this time with more volume also.

First chart 4hrs chart.

Weekly chart showing rising wedge

 

[Rain]

Price moved down. Closed CADJPY short at 90.6 area for profit. Sell limit orders and buy limit orders waiting incase price gets stretched from the 10EMA again on the 4hrs.

Crypto BTC not hit that 42k at the wick area. ETH closed the monthly below 4k. Not good?
TOTAL[crytpo market cap] stayed above 2.15, where will it close this month?

 

[Rain]

CADJPY stretched again 4hrs timeframe a quite a few hours ago. I have a short at 91.4 area, target is 91.1 area the 618fib. Looks like price is in that area right now.
We do also have bearish divergence. eg a LH on RSI, along with a HH on price. This only on the 4hrs, so maybe it won't pullback toooo much or maybe it will? There's also an ascending channel, although only 2x touches on the support side. Maybe price goes to channel support or breaks below it in a few days? Or maybe price bounces and keeps on the up. Time will tell.
Anyways see how it goes will have to decide to close it/part of it or hold on for a bit longer and risk less profit if it doesn't go down further.

 

[Rain]

Closed that CADJPY short at 91.1area for profit a short while ago.

 

[Rain]

Is anyone still trading cypto? I've been buying ETHUSD today, and back when price was further up. I also have some DOGEUSD.
@MuST0BtA1NSkR1Lla you still doing stocks or shares was it?

So onto forex.
CADJPY 4hrs timeframe stretched again. We got stretched last week ,and have so far no 618fib pullback. As usual the plan will extend the fib lower if price keeps moving lower without getting a pullback.

First long order is 90.7area
Second long is about 89.9[I'm being a bit cautious because sp500 has fallen so much]
Current target 618fib is about 90.9area. But that has now moved to 90.8 as price has now gone lower since I took the screenshot.

'

 

[Rain]

CADJPY, price reached the 90.8 area, the 618fib. Both orders closed and profit locked in.

 

[Rain]

XAGUSD has become stretched on the 4hrs timeframe, during last week. I have longs on at
23.8 small volume order
23.6 is the target of 618fib[unless price make a LL and I extend the fib]
23.3 is the target of 50fib[unless price makes a LL and I extend the fib]
23.3 medium volume order
23.0 medium volume order
22.8 small volume order
22.6 medium volume order
22.5 small volume order
22.3 small volume order
I shall add more if it continues to go south before getting a roughly 50fib pullback. Aim might be higher eg 618fib[or even higher] but I might take a fair chunk off at 50fib.
Also, there might be some longer term macro stuff going on, perhaps a bullrun for gold? I think I read something about a bull run from 2001 to 2011. Perhaps we are in another one and this a temporary pullback? We'll see. Or maybe not, maybe it needs to retest that descending channel[on the weekly timeframe] down at 18.1price area.
Either way, whether I hold for a longer time or a shorter time, the target of this trade right now[unlless price drops and I need to extend my fib] is 50fib is the 23.3area also possible the 618fib 23.6area.

If price hits that, my 23.8 order would be a loss, my 23.3 would be break even, and 23.0, 22.8, 22.6, 22.5, 22.3 orders would be profit and because I use more volume on those lower down[further stretched] orders and/or have more orders further down, either way its 'more volume' down there, and theres more profit than there is loss, than that means an overall profit for this trade.

Here's the chart. The blue lines are not the same distance as CADJPY, I look at a pair individually to see how often it gets stretched and does it pullback etc. Also, less decimal places on tradingview compared to mt4 so the lines might be a teeny tiny bit different size, but whatever. It[price] clearly stretched further than the blue vertical trend line on that big red bar[I put name it on the chart].

 

[Rain]

Closed some of DOGEUSD, for break even. Left some on, might add at some point.
Have recently slowly closed all my ETHUSD that I put on in the last couple of weeks for profit. Price was moving up but with very low volume compared to the high volume at the swing low point daily time frame, so price up and volume getting lower, can be a sign the small rally does not have a lot of force behind it.

 

[Rain]

An update on a few things:

-Natural Gas. This ended up ranging a few weeks ago down at the 3.5 area, it has not yet hit the 3.2 area that I think it will get to. But, due to thinking it would go up, I did close alot of my shorts and locked in some profit back then and as it went up.

I did put a long on, but closed it before price went up, whoopsie lol. Anyway, that loss didn't come close to the profit locked in from the shorts, still way ahead.
So this went up twice. First time on the 12/1/22 and I had added shorts up/on the way up there, closed some for profit when it came back down, then it went up a second time and I think most/all of those recently put on shorts were closed eg a little more profit. I still had some shorts from further down[3.5 area etc] as a running loss.

So when it went up the second time recently eg the 2/2/22 I put some shorts on the way up, then stopped adding shorts but added some around 5.3area, near the gap it had formed when it dropped a few weeks ago. When it came down, I closed the 5.3shorts at around the 5.1 area. Now, you might wonder why close so soon?
That's way above the 3.5area and 3.2 target, but I had to look after my margin. I found some trendlines on the weekly ,maybe this went up to 7.3 the possibility was, so I protected the margin , locked in small profit, still have the running loss from 3.5 remember.
I then just today closed some of the other shorts on the way up, a tiny bit more profit locked in. The reason I closed those ones, is in the next paragraph. Remember I also still have shorts down towards the 3.5 area as running losses.

Now, when this came down recently, it has yet another gap, two actually. I think it might go up to the 4.6area[first gap on henry hub], not sure if we will get higher than that but we might. There is a tiny gap at the 5.4area as well. The recent price drop was so quick and stretched from moving averages 4hrs we might, keyword might, go back up to the 4.9 or 5.1 area. But, I'm not about to go long. I believe natural gas is far more "weather/time of year cyclical" I'm not going to risk that in this context here. Maybe I'll miss out on a trade here but that does not matter. I still have a bearish bias for the next few weeks/months from where we are now/if it goes higher.

So, possible price movements for natural gas[if it goes up]
-the 4.6 area
-the 5.0 area
-the 5.4 area
-the 7.3 area

I will be shorting it if it goes up. I still believe in that 3.2 target. But, I will be keeping an eye on the EIA energy report for the natural gas storeage, if storeage gets out of alignment[in this context lower] compared with the 5year average or whatever it is, risk appetite or whatever, that might be a clue it will go up. But so far, this has not been evident , and I've been looking at the EIA each week for the last few weeks.

But natural gas might not go up to those gaps. Maybe they remain unfilled and it goes down. Which is fine, good for my shorts down lower.


Now, onto XAGUSD Silver.
Price made a slightly lower low, so maybe those fib target I mentioned might be a tiny bit lower now. Lets have a look. Yep
50fib target now 23.2 area
618fib target 23.5area
so basically very similar, it was only very small LL. I did not add anymore longs down there.
However, we closed above support/resistance at the 22.8 level, on the daily timeframe, I have now added another long at 22.9 close to a retest, and then later it did retest that level 22.8.
Silver currently at 23.0, I added another long order, and again at 23.1
There's also a smaller ascending trendline that silver has closed back above, I'm not sure it's a huge deal but maybe a little extra confluence.
To be clear, the longs I added today, they are not part of my pullback system. I'm treating them as a separate thing, their own trade. Eg they are trading 'with' the trend, not a pullback. Why do I have a long term bullish bias on silver? Here's the information:

Well, DXY / USDX, has formed a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, and its at a swing high[potentially].
We have a LL on the RSI, with a HH on price on the weekly, potential bearish divergence.
If the DXY goes down, on a macro/long term level, what does Silver do? It tends to go up. Maybe not day for day, but long term/macro it tends to do this.
This DXY falling might encourage btcusd to go up as well.....
Silver has a big moven up, and now a bunch of sideways consolidation on the weekly timeframe. Its been sideways for 18months[after price stopped going up], thats a lot of consolidation, perhaps "all of that" has got to go somewhere, I doubt it will just keep consolidating forever.
Towards the end of the consolidation, we have a falling wedge as part of that consolidation, which you could argue is bullish signal[falling wedge on daily timeframe].

Now, if silver closes the day back below 22.8, I will close the orders I put on today. Why? because it closed back below support.
But, I will not close any of my pullback system orders, I am treating them as separate, in some ways.[but, considering the risk reward below, I might hang onto them beyond the fib levels above].
The risk reward for todays orders is quite good like 10reward 1 risk .... if you think silver is going to go way up to say 28.0.... and if you let the long go down to 22.3 for example[say we close today or tomorrow etc below at 22.3], but you got in at 22.8/22.9 area, well, that is like 0.5 risk, and 5.0 reward. This would be a longer hold potentially. Maybe it even goes higher than 28.0?

But there are no guarantees. Maybe we get a DXY going up this week to make 50% of the bearish engulfing candle, which would be about the 96.2 area, and maybe silver does go back down and closes below 22.8 on the daily timeframe. Maybe DXY just goes up and up and up! But, not likely. Maybe sp500 has not finished dropping, and takes silver with it if it drops more.



Here's the DXY / USDX chart showing that bearish engulfing candle after a big move up, and also potential bearish divergence.

Here's XAGUSD / Silver, showing that falling wedge, and also that 22.8 area, there's also that little trendline as well.

Here's XAGUSD / Silver weekly timeframe, showing that big move up and 18months of conslidation.

 

[Rain]

XAGUSD Silver, has reached both targets. The 50fib 23.2 area and the 618fib 23.5area that I mentioned in my last post.
I closed some of my buy orders from 3posts ago, at the 50fib area target and locked in some profits. The other ones I put on that day, even though they have hit the target, I'm leaving on longer as I have a longer term bullish bias. Same with the orders I added in my last post, still have those on as well. Chart showing how price did come back after being stretched on the 4hrs timeframe, reached the targets.

4hrs timeframe XAGUSD

In my last post I showed the daily timeframe of XAGUSD Silver. Notice how the blue trend resistance line, the falling wedge resistance line, price sold off from it last thursday. It also sold off from it many other times. I put this on the chart. See how the line is being respected, most of the time? It did have that false break, yet that sold off as well! You could argue its a key level. Sometimes trendlines and support/resistance lines can be subjective/grey area, but you could also argue they are a zone/area.
Now if we can get, a daily close above it, and stay above it, all of that sideways movement might , keyword might, go up. The next key resistance after that would be 24.7 area, based on horizontal support/resistance.

Daily timeframe XAGUSD

I mentioned how DXY might come up to the 50fib of that weekly engulfing. Sure enough, it has. 96.4 is todays high, so far. The 96.2 area the 50fib level.

Copper did get stretched to the downside on the 4hrs timeframe on friday last week, I do have two longs orders on, and whilst I do have a long term bullish bias for copper, if it drops to the downside[before hitting the fib targets] , if it drops outside the weekly time frame wedge, then I will not add more orders, I will let it drop quite a bit before adding more longs to that, as a drop like that would be significant.

I have a long on ETHUSD at about the 2900 area, that was added in the last few days.
I do have two longs further up, 3175area, which I added on I think the 9th of February. I think volume had picked up a bit maybe, but the DXY had some bearish signals and thats.... there's an long term macro inverse corrleation with DXY vs BTCUSD so that was the reason iirc for adding a long again, after having closed all on the 2nd of February.

Now if, big if, but if ETHUSD goes up from here, we may have an inverse head and shoulders on the daily timeframe. Would need to check but the target for that might be around the 4,500price area for ETHUSD.

I did also, add some XRPUSD back on 9th as well. About 90cent area. Had an order set at 68cents, but price didn't get far enough to add that on.

 

[Rain]

So, possible price movements for natural gas[if it goes up]
-the 4.6 area

Natural gas went up and filled that gap around the 4.6 area, along with touching resistance at the 4.7area. There was also a gap on the mcx as well, its come within I think 1.7pts of that gap, which might be close enough. Either way, I have now added more shorts for natural gas. Longer term target still 3.2area for my trade idea. If it goes up more[which I mentioned a couple of posts ago, it might not be done rising yet], I will look to add more shorts due to the longer term target.

nymex henry chart

 

[Rain]

Quick update.

Closed those two copper longs I mentioned last month, closed them for profit, and have another long on now. Copper might go further south first, we will see. Target if it doesn't go south would be the 4.78 4.82 areas[50fib and 618fib when I draw like this].

Silver XAGUSD. Well, it hasn't hit 28 but it sure has gone up! Closed some of those longs/buys recently for profit. Some still on incase it goes up more in the coming weeks/months. Tempting to put shorts on because it is quite stretched but being more cautious. Looking to potentially buy dips.

Gasonline / rb futures to potentially come back to the 2.9 area that might be a fair while off yet.

Natural gas I'm still expecting it to come down that 3.2 area may take time. It's dropped a bit recently needs to make a LL. Currently its on a 4hrs timeframe trendline support level, might be ascending channel as well. Either way, that's what its doing. Close below that, and that would change that from support to resistance.

CADJPY stretched to the downside 4hrs have one long on. Spreading out any buy limit orders though because... we do have that rising wedge[longer term potentially bearish] weekly timeframe.
There's also a daily timeframe wedge, that we might be looking to break out to the downside of.
There's also a giant monthly wedge[completely different to the daily one I just mentioned] its currently outside of... if it closes back below that, more bearish signals. But if it goes back to that wedge trendline[currently as support] its likely to zig zag its way down there on the 4hrs timeframe and/or daily timeframe, hence I will still do the pullback system, with more caution. Price on some things generally doesn't move in one straight line, it can zig zag around.

ETHUSD/crypto, I still have those longs I mentioned. They are running losses. Still seeing what DXY does, no need to close at this point for me.