Daygame: Probability, Randomness & Large Sample Sizes

[topcat]

What are your daygame or night game ratio conversions to add here?

Did you think daygame was different in 2016-2018 than it is now - if so, why and how is it different?

I have nothing to add friend, my message was directed at DWW. What concerned you about it?

 

[James Cruse]

I have nothing to add friend, my message was directed at DWW. What concerned you about it?

So why don't you want to add your daygame ratios or conversions here? I'm sure we'd all like to see what a Tribal Elder's daygame conversions are added here and how you got to those conversions.

Could you share that here or is there a reason why you wouldn't?

 

[ThePhoenix]

... Or maybe I let one slip because I wasn't sure how old she was and then when I get confirmation she was of uni aged or above, she has walked off into the distance...

It seems like you're in your head about a lot of things.

I can relate here because when I first started daygame, oh, man, I was so fucking terrified of accidentally hitting on a minor—I'm old enough to be their dad!—that I had trouble getting myself to approach anything under 30. This was especially hard for me because I love black women and black girls get booty fast—I knew a tall 14 year old black girl that easily passed for adult (until she opened her mouth).

You have to realize that there's nothing abnormal about being attracted to a female that has gone through puberty, it's just nature! Go to the Wikipedia article for Puberty, there's a set of nudes of the typical girl from childhood to the end of puberty. The last pic is of age 16.0, and is straight up an adult body. Even the 15.0 is so close as to be well within the variability of adult females (not hard to find 30 year olds that have the same physique).

Obviously don't go approaching minors on purpose, but my policy is that if I like the girl but I'm not sure she's of age, just approach her and find out by talking to her!

Initially it's really scary, you think like an underage girl is going to scream at the top of her lungs and spray Mace at you until the cops come and put you away (even though you didn't do anything illegal). Now I've done it enough times, I can assure you that won't happen. Usually, if anything, they are flattered and happy to chat.

Only thing you really have to worry about is that she might lie about her age because she wants you to fuck her. Which is why I don't even ask directly. I ask other questions that she's not going to have good answers for on the spot. After talking to her a couple minutes you should be able to tell if it's a high school chick vs. uni chick or whatever.

I mostly game in stores in large malls. Nobody is checking ID at the door, so yeah, if I approach 10 girls, typically 1 or 2 of them end up being high school chicks and I just move on, it really is no big deal, trust me—and I am older than you.

Fuck, a few times I've hit on what turned out to be a high school girl with her mom right there! Fuck me, hahaha. (Obviously I didn't know the girl was underage or I wouldn't have wasted my time approaching.) So far in these situations, mom didn't say or do shit. In one case (African) the mom just smiled and wandered off. At least once I would've been of half a mind to hit on the mom once I found out the daughter was too young, but I haven't quite done that yet.

(Whether to count these as approaches, I never even thought about it before... I do count them, simply because I still had to pick up my balls and go talk to the chick. Obviously seducing her is off limits, but that's just built into the ratio, which will never be 100% anyway.)

I'm glad I don't let it bother me, because the first chick I laid from day game, actually she was a college girl (100% sure, I helped her with her homework afterwards), and with a fairly nice body, but I had been scared she may have been a high school girl but I approached anyway.

... But if the girl looks too young, even if they are 18 I won't do the approach. It's off putting which leads to an awkward approach.

If you're not attracted to the girl, obviously don't bother approaching. Sure, I pass up adults who have no booty or are really short, just because I don't find them sexy enough.

But if you are attracted but somehow it's still "off putting which leads to an awkward approach", this is totally in your head. I've (accidentally) approached an attractive high school chick quite a few times without any awkwardness, save for the disappointment that she's too young. Just, "well, it was nice meeting you, Keisha," and I'm off. You make it awkward by thinking about how terrible it is.

...and I can't be bothered to run back and approach just for a rejection.

This is an assumption that does not help you.

 

[average_daygamer]

It seems like you're in your head about a lot of things.

I can relate here because when I first started daygame, oh, man, I was so fucking terrified of accidentally hitting on a minor—I'm old enough to be their dad!—that I had trouble getting myself to approach anything under 30. This was especially hard for me because I love black women and black girls get booty fast—I knew a tall 14 year old black girl that easily passed for adult (until she opened her mouth).

You have to realize that there's nothing abnormal about being attracted to a female that has gone through puberty, it's just nature! Go to the Wikipedia article for Puberty, there's a set of nudes of the typical girl from childhood to the end of puberty. The last pic is of age 16.0, and is straight up an adult body. Even the 15.0 is so close as to be well within the variability of adult females (not hard to find 30 year olds that have the same physique).

Obviously don't go approaching minors on purpose, but my policy is that if I like the girl but I'm not sure she's of age, just approach her and find out by talking to her!

Initially it's really scary, you think like an underage girl is going to scream at the top of her lungs and spray Mace at you until the cops come and put you away (even though you didn't do anything illegal). Now I've done it enough times, I can assure you that won't happen. Usually, if anything, they are flattered and happy to chat.

Only thing you really have to worry about is that she might lie about her age because she wants you to fuck her. Which is why I don't even ask directly. I ask other questions that she's not going to have good answers for on the spot. After talking to her a couple minutes you should be able to tell if it's a high school chick vs. uni chick or whatever.

I mostly game in stores in large malls. Nobody is checking ID at the door, so yeah, if I approach 10 girls, typically 1 or 2 of them end up being high school chicks and I just move on, it really is no big deal, trust me—and I am older than you.

Fuck, a few times I've hit on what turned out to be a high school girl with her mom right there! Fuck me, hahaha. (Obviously I didn't know the girl was underage or I wouldn't have wasted my time approaching.) So far in these situations, mom didn't say or do shit. In one case (African) the mom just smiled and wandered off. At least once I would've been of half a mind to hit on the mom once I found out the daughter was too young, but I haven't quite done that yet.

(Whether to count these as approaches, I never even thought about it before... I do count them, simply because I still had to pick up my balls and go talk to the chick. Obviously seducing her is off limits, but that's just built into the ratio, which will never be 100% anyway.)

I'm glad I don't let it bother me, because the first chick I laid from day game, actually she was a college girl (100% sure, I helped her with her homework afterwards), and with a fairly nice body, but I had been scared she may have been a high school girl but I approached anyway.



If you're not attracted to the girl, obviously don't bother approaching. Sure, I pass up adults who have no booty or are really short, just because I don't find them sexy enough.

But if you are attracted but somehow it's still "off putting which leads to an awkward approach", this is totally in your head. I've (accidentally) approached an attractive high school chick quite a few times without any awkwardness, save for the disappointment that she's too young. Just, "well, it was nice meeting you, Keisha," and I'm off. You make it awkward by thinking about how terrible it is.



This is an assumption that does not help you.

This is a good post, but there is a big caveat: city size. I daygame in a small city and that is worse for approaching because it makes me feel more self conscious and even prone to gossip spreading.

There are a number of factors which increase resistance to approach:

Approach angle
Can I see her face or not
Fashion (is she dressed the same as teens dress)
Walking pace
Bystanders
Voice (if in two set or more)
Discussion topic (if in 2 set or more)

I am guessing you are in the USA, which is more open minded on these things. Unfortunately, in England, everyone seems to be jumping at the chance you label you a paedophile.

It's a very sick culture. This is not related to the age of consent which is 16, but more to the age gap in a given interaction.

I have approached underaged before, if you scroll back in my posts, you can see in April I approached a 3 set of 15-17 year olds. But I still can't shake the fear. The only time I will risk it is if a chick is really my type where I think "fuck what people think, I'm going in". But if I am on the fence of if I even find them attractive, I often don't bother to save the cringe.

And the trouble is, English teens look a lot more mature from a young age than teens in more conservative countries, probably due to a higher fat diet leading to a more curvy physique and using makeup from a young age. So it's a double whammy. But if English people heard me say that, they would call me a paedophile. But it doesn't solve the problem for daygame. We just have a weird combination of sluttily dressed women and male shaming in this country.

I too have approached underaged and nothing has happened, but I can't shake the fear to risk it consistently, which is why I am seeking help.

I have been told off for discussing this on this forum before but since you made such a long and detailed post, I had to reply. I didn't want to get dragged into this topic again. I actually really need to meet someone from the forum and go out Irl to test my judgement on this issue. It might be that my judgement is sound and I am actually over worrying.

 

[topcat]

So why don't you want to add your daygame ratios or conversions here? I'm sure we'd all like to see what a Tribal Elder's daygame conversions are added here and how you got to those conversions.

Could you share that here or is there a reason why you wouldn't?

cuz they’re piss poor mate..

 

[James Cruse]

cuz they’re piss poor mate..

You can still share them even if they're poor, right? For all the people who are doing daygame on the forum.

So, you only do night game or online then?

 

[topcat]

You can still share them even if they're poor, right? For all the people who are doing daygame on the forum.

So, you only do night game or online then?

None of the above. I don’t game..

 

[ThePhoenix]

This is a good post, but there is a big caveat: city size. I daygame in a small city and that is worse for approaching because it makes me feel more self conscious and even prone to gossip spreading.

There are a number of factors which increase resistance to approach:

Approach angle
Can I see her face or not
Fashion (is she dressed the same as teens dress)
Walking pace
Bystanders
Voice (if in two set or more)
Discussion topic (if in 2 set or more)

I am guessing you are in the USA, which is more open minded on these things. Unfortunately, in England, everyone seems to be jumping at the chance you label you a paedophile.

It's a very sick culture. This is not related to the age of consent which is 16, but more to the age gap in a given interaction.

I have approached underaged before, if you scroll back in my posts, you can see in April I approached a 3 set of 15-17 year olds. But I still can't shake the fear. The only time I will risk it is if a chick is really my type where I think "fuck what people think, I'm going in". But if I am on the fence of if I even find them attractive, I often don't bother to save the cringe.

And the trouble is, English teens look a lot more mature from a young age than teens in more conservative countries, probably due to a higher fat diet leading to a more curvy physique and using makeup from a young age. So it's a double whammy. But if English people heard me say that, they would call me a paedophile. But it doesn't solve the problem for daygame. We just have a weird combination of sluttily dressed women and male shaming in this country.

I too have approached underaged and nothing has happened, but I can't shake the fear to risk it consistently, which is why I am seeking help.

I have been told off for discussing this on this forum before but since you made such a long and detailed post, I had to reply. I didn't want to get dragged into this topic again. I actually really need to meet someone from the forum and go out Irl to test my judgement on this issue. It might be that my judgement is sound and I am actually over worrying.

I'm actually in one of the worst Western countries for anti-masculine feminist crap. I do totally get the fear, I've had a lot of fear myself, but a lot of it I think is exaggerated based on what you see in sensationalist media.

Certainly if you've empirically correlated certain tells of a girl being underage you can use that to filter out most, but, to borrow from control theory in engineering, there's a certain minimal fraction of approaches you can expect to be underage even after pre-approach filtering, because of the ambiguity. If you're approaching lots underage, you're not filtering well enough... but if you don't approach any, it's guaranteed you're throwing out lots of twenty-somethings. Sure you can do that if you want, but I really don't think it's necessary.

Personally I hate makeup.. maybe I'd wind up accidentally approaching more teens if I didn't.

One thing you might consider is in the style of approach. Stopping a girl on the street is a bit more conspicuous and unambiguous. But think instead what if you're in a store and happen to be standing beside a girl and grab something off the shelf and tap her with it and ask some ridiculous question about it that makes her smile or laugh and then you get talking. It's really low-key and if she turns out to be underage it's no big deal because it's more like you were just being social, and chances are nobody saw you do it anyway. It's doubtful the girl herself makes an issue of it.

The low population of your city obviously isn't ideal for various reasons and others have expounded on that so I won't repeat, but I will say that I lived recently for nearly a year in a little town in Central America of only 14,000 people in the whole district.. I did unfortunately chicken out on most approaches, but I had at the time not overcome approach inhibition the way I since have, and I think I could have done better if I had.

As it stands, from just a handful of approaches there I did get a date, spent $0 on the chick, actually managed to get her to meet up straight at my home as the first date, and even bring me food. Unfortunately I hesitated to escalate and lost her, but had I been a bit more aggressive, likely could've been a lay. I met the girl walking down the street on the other end of town, but her gossipy auntie just somehow happened to live a few doors from me... girl literally hid us behind a semi trailer when she saw ..still got her home, though.

Most limitations are imagined.

 

[James Cruse]

None of the above. I don’t game..

And you didn't do any seduction back in 2016-2018 either, as referred to above?

Why are you here or a Tribal Elder?

 

[Atlas IV]

And you didn't do any seduction back in 2016-2018 either, as referred to above?

Why are you here or a Tribal Elder?

Dude if you're gonna pick fights with Tribal Elders you should at least know when they are trolling you..

 

[James Cruse]

Dude if you're gonna pick fights with Tribal Elders you should at least know when they are trolling you..

That's ok - we know he would never talk about his stats because they're not good and he really doesn't want anyone to know.

He's trying to divert away from it with the worst trolling I've ever seen lol.

He's an online guy, I think everyone knows that.

 

[ThePhoenix]

OP has good arguments.

With that said, there's also something to be said for rapid correction of mistakes that are obvious to someone with more skills.

A big reason why I got a lay within my first 60 day game approaches is because I strove to learn from each approach. If I had've just done 60 approaches blindly without any corrections, there's no way that would've happened. There has to be a feedback loop.

Did I over-analyze at points? Yeah, probably.. it's typical of me .. there has to be a balance.

Definitely you do need to approach, if nothing else because a lot of the specific techniques aren't always necessary, some pulls are easier than you'd think from reading hundreds of PUA articles and becoming overwhelmed. And conversely, some chicks won't budge no matter how skilled you are.

But as a reductio ad absurdum, imagine a guy who approaches 1000 girls, and each and every one of them his plan is to wine and dine her, buy her gifts, take it slow, show her how special she is, act like she's the only girl in the world for him, be careful to not say anything that could possibly offend her, speak in a weak voice, and dress like a geek. Those 1000 approaches are a waste of time.

 

[ThePhoenix]

See also #48 above, but I should add, btw:

Unfortunately, in England, everyone seems to be jumping at the chance you label you a paedophile.

It's not just England, I reckon.

I know this doesn't help much because nobody cares, but technically, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual—the bible of clinical psychiatry—is very clear that in order for a person to be diagnosed with pedophilia, the object of their sexual desire must be a pre-pubescent child. FWIW.

 

[average_daygamer]

See also #48 above, but I should add, btw:


It's not just England, I reckon.

I know this doesn't help much because nobody cares, but technically, the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual—the bible of clinical psychiatry—is very clear that in order for a person to be diagnosed with pedophilia, the object of their sexual desire must be a pre-pubescent child. FWIW.

I get that but good luck telling that to a load of skinheads outside the pub who just saw you get blown out by a 15 year old that looks 22. It's not a question of fact with those idiots, any excuse will do.

 

[ThePhoenix]

I get that but good luck telling that to a load of skinheads outside the pub who just saw you get blown out by a 15 year old that looks 22. It's not a question of fact with those idiots, any excuse will do.

I don't know your environment so I can't really say, and I'm not saying there aren't ignorant extremists out there, but I have to wonder if you might be exaggerating this danger in your own mind. It sounds like a pretty specific scenario... I mean, really, if you didn't know she was 15, how likely is it they did?

Also see my earlier remarks about context and style of approach. A pub might not be the best place to approach if you really find this likely to happen. There are other places and ways you can make low-key approaches that few people will even see and that pass for random socialization, such as my above example. Especially if you're in a lower population city you need to get more creative and be more determined (unless/until you can move).

A lot of this comes down to your own attitude, which seems a bit pessimistic. If you're convinced, "I can't cold approach because X/Y/Z," then quite simply, you make that your reality.

If you expect to get "blown out" by chicks, that's going to come across in your behaviour and it's going to make you off-putting to them, making bad reactions more likely.

 

[Will_V]

I get that but good luck telling that to a load of skinheads outside the pub who just saw you get blown out by a 15 year old that looks 22. It's not a question of fact with those idiots, any excuse will do.

Here we go again. Have you been attacked by a bunch of skinheads for getting blown out by a girl you thought was over age, or is it just a fantasy of yours?

A lot of times when I see guys come in with daygame woes I can feel even through the words that the approaches are uncalibrated, obviously hitting on her, by a guy doing nothing to grace the scene in which he is standing. And if I can sense this, as a dude reading a third party account of an approach, I can only imagine what it was like for the girl or anyone watching.

If you're doing things with finesse and calibration, presenting yourself well, you shouldn't have any problems. Obviously there is a non zero chance of something happening, the same way there's a non zero chance of getting mugged walking down the street. But you just have to rely on your social skills to handle it, and accept that we live in a competitive world, and if you want something you have to risk something.

In any scene involving people, if you are an outsider who doesn't know the rules or how they can be bent, you are a target. Nasty girls will be mean to you, nasty dudes will cause you problems, and authorities of that scene will try and remove you from it. It happens in school, it happens in clubs, and it happens in life. It never goes away, this is the way life has always been since the dawn of man, and it will be forever.

You must simply figure out how to fit in with a scene, present yourself as someone of high standing in it, how to follow its unwritten rules, and how to dominate it. There's no escape, unless you want to just be one of the herd and accept what you are given.

 

[AspiringStoic]

Definitely you do need to approach, if nothing else because a lot of the specific techniques aren't always necessary, some pulls are easier than you'd think from reading hundreds of PUA articles and becoming overwhelmed. And conversely, some chicks won't budge no matter how skilled you are.

But as a reductio ad absurdum, imagine a guy who approaches 1000 girls, and each and every one of them his plan is to wine and dine her, buy her gifts, take it slow, show her how special she is, act like she's the only girl in the world for him, be careful to not say anything that could possibly offend her, speak in a weak voice, and dress like a geek. Those 1000 approaches are a waste of time

Did you even read the post? Dont give absurd examples. That just comes across stupid.

Did I say do 1000 approaches and don't analyse anything?

Read the post carefully before writing absurd stuff.

 

[AspiringStoic]

So before you analyse anything, do a 100 approaches, over as short a period of time as possible, track your stats, and THEN analyse PATTERNS not individual interactions

@ThePhoenix THIS is what I said!

And and how many guys do you know in life who have done 1000 approaches?

And then how many do you know who have done 1000 approaches and NOT analysed any of their approaches?

But this kind of absurd reasoning gives the perfect example for most guys to sit around mentally masturbating instead of out there approaching.

This is something I see all the time. But the guy who actually does a 1000 and not analyses is so rare! But guys speak about them as if you find them on every street corner. Like what the hell?

Do you live in a different world where most of the guys you know in life are running around approaching mindlessly and you are having to convince them to stop approaching and analyse a bit??

The reality is most guys in the world and most guys who even get into pickup are still stuck with approach anxiety and are doing an approach here and there and talking about pickup way more than actually doing pickup.

 

[ThePhoenix]

Did I say do 1000 approaches and don't analyse anything?

No, of course not, and I didn't mean it that way. I did say it was an intentionally absurd example ("reductio ad absurdum") to explore a point.

I do totally agree guys typically don't approach enough and get too invested in what few approaches they do. I do largely agree with your basic premise.

To better articulate what I was trying to get at, you could take poker as an example, because it too is a domain in which there is a substantial element of luck as well as skill.

Is it meaningful to look at how a single poker hand played out? Maybe, maybe not, it depends on the question you're asking.

If the question is, "Why didn't I win this hand?", it's a meaningless question that amounts to how the deck happened to get shuffled.

But if you ask, "Did I play this hand correctly?", that is a question that can potentially be answered meaningfully, even without looking at any other hand. Maybe you made a really bad call and weren't aware of the odds for that play or weren't paying attention to them. So if you get feedback telling you how stupid that was and why, you can correct faster.

Now, that does depend on expert advice. If you try to self-analyze a single approach, you yourself don't have the cumulative experience to answer that meaningfully so yes, absolutely, you'd have to do a lot more approaches to see the pattern for yourself, and I do totally agree with you on that point.

But I also know from personal experience, FWIW, that if I had've done 100 approaches (to use the actual number you gave) without getting feedback on any of them (and that's a type of analysis, albeit not self-analysis, which is an important distinction), it's less likely I would have gotten a lay after only 60, because on that lay I did at key points knowingly employ feedback I had gotten from experienced guys on some of the prior approaches where I had handled certain things poorly. Of course, if I had've only done a few approaches and agonized over them endlessly, I'd have gotten stuck; totally agree with you there.

 

[AspiringStoic]

No, of course not, and I didn't mean it that way. I did say it was an intentionally absurd example ("reductio ad absurdum") to explore a point.

I do totally agree guys typically don't approach enough and get too invested in what few approaches they do. I do largely agree with your basic premise.

To better articulate what I was trying to get at, you could take poker as an example, because it too is a domain in which there is a substantial element of luck as well as skill.

Is it meaningful to look at how a single poker hand played out? Maybe, maybe not, it depends on the question you're asking.

If the question is, "Why didn't I win this hand?", it's a meaningless question that amounts to how the deck happened to get shuffled.

But if you ask, "Did I play this hand correctly?", that is a question that can potentially be answered meaningfully, even without looking at any other hand. Maybe you made a really bad call and weren't aware of the odds for that play or weren't paying attention to them. So if you get feedback telling you how stupid that was and why, you can correct faster.

Now, that does depend on expert advice. If you try to self-analyze a single approach, you yourself don't have the cumulative experience to answer that meaningfully so yes, absolutely, you'd have to do a lot more approaches to see the pattern for yourself, and I do totally agree with you on that point.

But I also know from personal experience, FWIW, that if I had've done 100 approaches (to use the actual number you gave) without getting feedback on any of them (and that's a type of analysis, albeit not self-analysis, which is an important distinction), it's less likely I would have gotten a lay after only 60, because on that lay I did at key points knowingly employ feedback I had gotten from experienced guys on some of the prior approaches where I had handled certain things poorly. Of course, if I had've only done a few approaches and agonized over them endlessly, I'd have gotten stuck; totally agree with you there.

I get your point. But you are using your personal example but not talking about what happens with most guys.

First of all until a newbie has done a 100 approaches within a short period of time, he has not yet conquered the emotional aspects of approaching like managing his anxiety, being calm during the conversation etc. Absolute basic things. Its only after a guy can get past that stage is it worth doing any further analysis for most guys.

And the second part is a guy posting about an interaction while he is still continuing to approach consistently vs guys who do very few approaches spaced apart and are busy analysing approaches and then people on a forum give feedback by maybe listing some things to work on or some articles to read.

And when that happens 9 times out of 10, the guy goes:

"Oh gotta read up all these things before I approach again!"

And approaching is skipped in favour of more "research".

And then let's take your example. So you took feedback that you got, applied it and got a lay on the 60th approach right?

What would have happened if you had made those adjustments and still not gotten the lay on the 60th approach for reasons beyond your control? What then??

Should you stop approaching? And analyse more deeply? Change your style of doing x or y?

All I am saying is to even find out whether something is working or not, you have to reduce the noise and randomness involved.

And the larger the sample size, the more clearer the picture. More signal and less noise.

You are talking about your personal experience not what guys generally do.

Most guys are not failing because they have done a lot of approaches and not analysed them.

Most guys are struggling because they are NOT DOING ENOUGH approaches!